Dentons’ public policy team probes the polls to give you a first look at the newest (anticipated) members of Congress in this special report.
Primaries in three states on Tuesday will set the contours of some of fall’s highest profile gubernatorial and US House contests, as both parties eye possible and long-pursued upsets in Connecticut, Minnesota, and Wisconsin.
CT-Gov (D & R): Democratic Gov. Dan Malloy decided not to seek a third term in the face of an ongoing economic crisis that’s made him incredibly unpopular, and Republicans have a real chance to score a pickup in the fall.
Five Republicans are competing here, and there’s no obvious frontrunner. The state party endorsed Danbury Mayor Mark Boughton, who has led the few polls we’ve seen. Boughton, along with businessman Steve Obsitnik and former Trumbull First Selectman Tim Herbst, are participating in the state’s public financing program, which gives them each $1.35 million for the primary but caps their spending at $1.6 million.
Two businessmen, David Stemerman and Bob Stefanowski, are mostly self-funding their bids and are therefore not limited in how much they can spend. Stemerman has spent a hefty $6.2 million during his campaign, while Stefanowski has spent $2.9 million. Both Stefanowski and Stemerman have also aired commercials attacking one another while largely laying off their rivals. A survey earlier this month from the Democratic firm Tremont Public Advisors had Boughton leading Stefanowski 32-22, with Stemerman at 17.
Things are much more lopsided for the Democrats. The state party establishment, as well as a number of prominent unions, are supporting wealthy businessman Ned Lamont, who notably defeated Sen. Joe Lieberman in the 2006 primary before losing the general election to Lieberman’s independent campaign; Lamont also lost the 2010 primary to Malloy. The only other Democrat in the race is Bridgeport Mayor Joe Ganim, who spent several years in prison for corruption but regained his old office in 2015. Lamont has outspent Ganim $2.6 million to $600,000 during the campaign.
CT-05 (D & R) (50-46 Clinton, 54-45 Obama): Democratic Rep. Elizabeth Esty announced she would retire in the spring after news broke that she’d inadequately handled an abusive staffer.
Former Simsbury First Selectwoman Mary Glassman narrowly won the endorsement of the Democratic Party endorsement over former high school teacher Jahana Hayes, the 2016 National Teacher of the Year. Glassman has the backing of several of Connecticut’s House members, but several unions and Sen. Chris Murphy are supporting Hayes, who would be the first black woman to represent the state in Congress. Glassman outspent Hayes $220,000 to $59,000 from July 1 to July 25 (which the FEC calls the “pre-primary period”), but Hayes had more money in the bank for the final weeks of the race.
This western Connecticut seat has been competitive territory in the past, and Republicans hope that retiring Gov. Dan Malloy’s unpopularity will give them an opening. However, none of the three Republican candidates have raised much money. The top fundraiser is retired psychology professor Ruby O’Neill, who outspent businessman Rich DuPont $57,000 to $33,000 in the pre-primary period. Former Meriden Mayor Manny Santos spent only $6,000 during this time, but he has the state party endorsement.
MN-Gov (D & R): Democratic Gov. Mark Dayton is retiring after two terms, and both parties will fight hard to win this contest in the fall. The Democratic primary is a three-way race between Attorney General Lori Swanson, Rep. Tim Walz, and state Rep. Erin Murphy.
Swanson only entered the race in early June, but she brought plenty of name recognition with her. However, her campaign has faced some tough stories in the two months since. News broke in July that Rep. Rick Nolan, who is Swanson’s running mate, had hired a former employee for his 2016 re-election campaign even though the aide had previously left Nolan’s legislative staff after multiple women accused him of sexual harassment. In the final week of the contest, former staffers at the attorney general’s office charged that Swanson had pressured government employees into doing political work for her. Two polls taken in July, before the Nolan story broke, showed Swanson leading the primary, but we have no new data since then.
Walz, who represents a competitive congressional seat in the southern part of the state, looked like the frontrunner throughout most of the race, and he and his allies have outspent the rest of the field. However, Murphy, who has been trying to run to the left of the pack, has Dayton’s support as well as the official endorsement of the state Democratic Party.
On the GOP side, former Gov. Tim Pawlenty is seeking to regain his old seat eight years after leaving office and embarking on an unsuccessful presidential bid. He faces Hennepin County Commissioner Jeff Johnson, who lost the 2014 general election to Dayton 50-44. Pawlenty has considerably more money and name recognition, and the few polls we’ve seen have shown him far ahead. Johnson, however, has the state GOP’s backing, and he’s tried to position himself to Pawlenty’s right. The former governor went up with a negative TV ad last month, so he’s at least taking Johnson seriously as a threat.
MN-01 (R) (53-39 Trump, 50-48 Obama): Democratic Rep. Tim Walz is leaving this competitive southern Minnesota seat behind to run for governor, and Republicans are hoping its sharp swing towards Trump will give them a big opening in the fall. The GOP candidates are state Sen. Carla Nelson and businessman Jim Hagedorn, who narrowly lost to Walz in 2016 in a race that had looked safe for Team Blue until election night.
Nelson outspent Hagedorn $126,000 to $93,000 during the pre-primary period, though he had more money left for the final weeks of the contest. Nelson does have the NRA in her corner, while Hagedorn has the party endorsement. Still, some Republicans are anxious about nominating Hagedorn, who has a long history of misogynist comments, birther ramblings, and comments about “ungrateful” and “dead Indians.” Whoever emerges will take on former Defense Department official Dan Feehan, who faces little opposition in the Democratic primary.
MN-05 (D) (73-18 Clinton, 74-24 Obama): Rep. Keith Ellison announced on the final day of candidate filing that he was leaving this safely blue Minneapolis seat to run for attorney general to succeed Lori Swanson, who herself had just announced a last-minute bid for governor. Several Democrats quickly entered the race for Ellison’s seat, and the main candidates look like former Minnesota House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher, state Rep. Ilhan Omar, and state Sen. Patricia Torres Ray.
Kelliher narrowly lost the 2010 primary for governor to Mark Dayton. Omar, who would be the nation’s first Somali-American member of Congress, has endorsements from Dayton, Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey, and the state party. Torres Ray would also make history as Minnesota’s first Hispanic member of Congress, but she’s raised considerably less money than her two main opponents.
MN-08 (D) (54-39 Trump, 52-46 Obama): Democratic Rep. Rick Nolan is retiring from a seat in the Iron Range in the northeast corner of the state. This area is ancestrally Democratic but shifted hard towards Trump, and Republicans are excited about St. Louis County Commissioner Pete Stauber, who faces no serious primary opposition.
There are three main Democratic candidates. State Rep. Jason Metsa and former state Rep. Joe Radinovich, who was Nolan’s campaign manager during his tight 2016 re-election campaign, have the most money and support from party elites. Radinovich, who has had the airwaves to himself, outspent Metsa $124,000 to $82,000 during the pre-primary period, and they both had a similar amount of cash left for the final weeks of the race. However, while retired Duluth news anchor Michelle Lee has raised and spent very little money or attracted much support from Democratic power players, she does have name recognition from her decades on TV.
Mining is one of the key issues in this contest. Mesta is the Democrat closest to mining interests and he has the backing of the United Steelworkers. Lee in particular has emphasized her opposition to local copper-nickel mining and its effects on the environment. Radinovich has tried to position himself in the middle on this issue while focusing more on healthcare.
VT Gov (R): Gov. Phil Scott, a centrist Republican stock-car driver, was once one of the most popular governors in the country — beloved by Republicans, Democrats and independents. But then, in April, he signed three historic gun-control laws, drawing fierce protests from residents of this traditionally pro-gun state. In a Morning Consult poll conducted after the signing, Scott’s popularity among Republicans dropped by 26 percentage points, and he now has a -15 net approval rating with voters of his own party. That could be a problem on Tuesday, given that shopkeeper Keith Stern is challenging Scott from the right, specifically criticizing Scott for signing the gun bills. The Republican Governors Association is acting like this is a competitive race: It has invested more than $1 million in a PAC supporting Scott’s re-election.
If Scott does lose the primary, then Stern, a more mainstream conservative, would instantly become a heavy underdog in this dark-blue state. (Going by our new and improved partisan lean metric,1 Vermont is 24 points more Democratic-leaning than the country as a whole.) Although none of the Democratic candidates has lit the world on fire financially, the favorite in the Democratic primary is probably former Vermont Electric Cooperative CEO Christine Hallquist, who, if elected, would be the nation’s first transgender governor.
WI-Gov (D): Democrats have a crowded contest to take on GOP Gov. Scott Walker. State Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Evers, the only statewide official running, has had decisive leads in the few polls we’ve seen, while his rivals have all been far behind.
However, former state Rep. Kelda Helen Roys, who would be the first woman to serve as governor, spent considerably more money than the rest of the field during July, which could help her get her name out late in the race. Professional Fire Fighters of Wisconsin president Mahlon Mitchell, who would be Wisconsin’s first black governor, has also spent a credible amount of money, and he’s backed by several unions. Attorney Matt Flynn, campaign finance reform activist Mike McCabe, Madison Mayor Paul Soglin, and state Sen. Kathleen Vinehout are also in.
WI-Sen (R): Republicans have hosted an extremely expensive contest to take on Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin. In one corner is businessman and Marine veteran Kevin Nicholson, who has benefited from over $10 million in spending from groups supported by conservative megadonor Richard Uihlein. In the other is state Sen. Leah Vukmir, who has received $2.5 million in air support from groups funded by Diane Hendricks, another conservative megadonor, and the Metropolitan Milwaukee Association of Commerce.
Nicholson has pitched himself as a conservative outsider, while Vukmir is much closer to the state GOP establishment and touts endorsements from both the state party and most of the state’s House delegation (including retiring Speaker Paul Ryan). Vukmir and her allies have taken aim at Nicholson’s tenure as president of the College Democrats of America, including his 2000 speech at the Democratic National Convention in support of Al Gore. Nicholson and his supporters have hit back against Vukmir for expressing past doubts about Donald Trump. A few polls in July showed Nicholson ahead, but we haven’t seen any fresh numbers in weeks.
WI-01 (D) (53-42 Trump, 52-47 Romney): Speaker Paul Ryan is retiring from this southern Wisconsin seat, and the GOP quickly closed ranks behind attorney Bryan Steil. Democrats are hoping to make a play for this district, and they have a battle between ironworker Randy Bryce and Janesville School Board member Cathy Myers.
Bryce entered the race last year with a strong announcement video promoting him as a blue-collar American who will stand up to the GOP, which helped him raise gobs of money. He also has the support of the DCCC, Bernie Sanders, and several unions. However, Bryce has attracted some bad headlines over the last year. Most notably, he only paid off some old debts, including $1,300 in child support and a $2,000 loan from almost two decades ago, well after he kicked off his campaign. Myers has raised considerably less money and generated much less attention, either good or bad.
Election prognosticators argue that the “holy trinity” of POTUS approval, Right Track/Wrong Track and Generic Ballot preference foretell the outcome in November.
Looking back over the last 9 midterms, we see that presidents with a sub-50 percent approval rating lose an average of 40 seats in the House and 6 seats in the Senate. We also note that the summer Right Track/Wrong Track number seems to align better than the generic ballot as an early indicator of seat loss.
By the numbers:
- Democrats in 56 House districts surpassed Republican incumbents in second-quarter fundraising, according to the latest Federal Election Commission filings. Sixteen of those House Republicans finished the quarter with less cash in their campaign accounts than Democratic opponents, while no Democratic members lag their Republican challengers in cash.
- There are 23 House seats held by a Republican incumbent that Hillary Clinton won in 2016: AZ-O2, CA-10, CA-21, CA-25, CA-39, CA-45, CA-48, CA-49, CO-06, FL-26, FL-27, IL-06, KS-03, MN-03, NJ-07, NY-24, PA-06, PA-07, TX-07, TX-32, VA-10, and WA-08.
- There are 12 House seats held by a Democratic incumbent that Donald Trump won in 2016: AZ-01, IA-02, IL-17, MN-01, MN-07, MN-08, NH-01, NJ-05, NV-03, NY-18, PA-17, and WI-03.
- So far in 2018, Democratic House primaries featuring at least one woman, one man and no incumbent, woman have woman in 70 of 106 cases (66 percent). One the GOP side, just 11 of 29 won (38 percent). Democrats have nominated women in 85 of 179 (47 percent) of 2018 House races, excluding incumbents. On the GOP side, just 24 of 139 (17 percent).
- The House GOP has 42 open or vacant seats, the most since the Gatsby Era: 19 Solid R, 4 Likely R, 7 Lean R, 4 Toss up, 5 Lean D, 3 Likely D.
We are less than 150 days from November’s general elections. Roughly half of the state primary election contests, as well as a few special elections, are behind us, and the contours of the campaign battlefield for the November general election are taking shape.
So it’s an excellent opportunity for an update on the battle for control of the US House and Senate, and a look at the key races for governor and attorney general, as well as seats in state legislatures around the country.
- The GOP currently enjoys a two-seat majority in the US Senate and a 23-seat majority in the US House of Representatives. In the Senate, Democrats are defending 26 seats to the GOP’s nine. As mandated by the Constitution, all 435 House seats are on the ballot in November.
- In the states, the GOP currently holds 33 governorships, the Democrats have 16, and there is one Independent. As a result of retirements, the GOP will be defending 26 governors’ seats while the Democrats will be defending only 10. Elections for state legislators will be held in 46 states. In addition, 35 of 50 attorney general seats will be contested this election cycle. In 43 states, the attorney general is directly elected and 30 of states states will hold elections for the position this November. Moreover, 4 of the 5 states where the attorney general is appointed by the governor will hold elections for governor. Main, the sole state where the attorney general is appointed by the state legislature, is also holding legislative elections this November. Of the 99 total state legislative chambers in the US, the GOP currently controls 67 of them.
A few truisms about midterm elections:
- While President Donald Trump won’t be on the ballot this November, his presence will be felt and will surely influence many House, Senate and even state races, for better and for worse.
- Additionally, the party out of power–that is, the party not in the White House–always has the edge on voter intensity and enthusiasm. Midterms are often very unkind to the party in the White House.
- Finally, history has shown that the generic ballot question, which simply asks voters which party they would prefer to control Congress, is fairly reliable metric of how many House seats turn over to the other party in the general election. (The most recent Real Clear Politics polling average has the generic ballot ballot at D+7.6.)
The answers to the following questions will help inform the path forward:
- Just how large a shadow will President Trump cast on the federal races, or will those races turn primarily on local issues not involving the president?
- Will a relatively strong national economy cause voters to “vote their pocketbooks” and overlook both their concerns about the president’s tweets and their unhappiness with congressional gridlock in Washington?
- How much of a role will the #metoo movement, and women generally, play in the outcome of the elections?
- With Democratic turnout this fall expected to be close to historic levels for a midterm election, what, if anything, can the GOP do to fire up its base and get them to voting booths this fall?
What else do we know at the movement? We know that there are more women candidates running for office, from both parties, than at any time in our history. We know that Democrats are leading the fundraising race at the candidate level but are still struggling at the national committee level. We know that retirements at the federal level, especially for the GOP, are reaching historic proportions and that those open seats are particularly vulnerable to national political sentiment.
Above all else, we know that events–nationally, locally, and on the world stage–that are presently unforeseeable have the potential to upstage all that we think we know today.
Today, voters in Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio, and West Virginia will go to the polls as primary season swings into high gear.
Republicans will choose Senate nominees to take on three vulnerable Democratic incumbents: Indiana’s Joe Donnelly, Ohio’s Sherrod Brown, and West Virginia’s Joe Manchin. Both sides also have competitive races to succeed termed-out Gov. John Kasich in Ohio, as well as plenty of House races to watch across these four states.
It only takes a simple plurality to win nomination in Indiana, Ohio, and West Virginia, while North Carolina requires a July runoff if no candidate takes more than 30 percent of the vote. However, since all of the primaries we’ll be watching have no more than three candidates running, all of these nominations will be settled on Tuesday, barring the most extraordinary of circumstances.
Things kick off at 6 PM ET when polls close in most of Indiana, with the small portion of the state in the Central time zone closing an hour later. Polls close in North Carolina, Ohio, and West Virginia at 7:30 PM ET.
● IN-Sen (D): Sen. Joe Donnelly is a vulnerable Democrat on everyone’s list, but it’s anyone’s guess who will face him in the fall. Republicans long expected a nasty duel between Rep. Luke Messer, who is close to the state party establishment, and Rep. Todd Rokita, a former secretary of state who has always been more of a lone wolf. But wealthy former state Rep. Mike Braun has scrambled things, and he’s used his fortune to outspend both congressmen and run ad after ad portraying himself as a political outsider. Polling has been scarce, so there’s no telling how this one will go.
All three Republicans attracted some bad press throughout the campaign and even into the final days. Rokita has been the most aggressive about portraying himself as the one true Trump ally in the race, so it didn’t look so good when Trump’s re-election campaign demanded that he stop using yard signs that seemed to suggest the White House was supporting Rokita’s bid. (After initially snarking, “We not not comment on yard sign strategy,” the Rokita campaign appeared to cover up the bogus endorsement with painter’s tape.)
Messer, meanwhile, has been on the defensive for months since news broke that he co-owns his Indiana residence with his mother while his family now lives in the D.C. area. (Similar charges that he’d “gone Washington” famously sank Sen. Richard Lugar in his 2012 primary.) Late in the race, the public also learned that in 2003, when Messer was persuading local Indiana GOP leaders to appoint him to replace a state representative who had been killed by a drunk driver, Messer had kept his own two DUIs a secret.
And finally, it turns out that Braun consistently voted in the Democratic primary until 2012, naturally leading his rivals to question his loyalty to the GOP. Braun has argued that he’s a successful businessman, but a recent Associated Press article painted him in a very different light, finding that his company has been charged with a litany of labor law violations and has sought the very sort of government subsidies that Braun has attacked on the campaign trail.
● IN-02 (D) (59-36 Trump, 56-42 Romney): While GOP Rep. Jackie Walorski decisively won re-election in 2014 and 2016, Democrats haven’t forgotten about her surprisingly tight 49-48 victory when she won her first term in 2012. The DCCC is hoping to target Walorski in the fall, and healthcare executive Mel Hall appears to be the frontrunner to take her on. Hall’s main primary foe is businessman Yatish Joshi, who has the support of Joe Kernan, a former mayor of South Bend and Indiana’s most recent Democratic governor. Hall outspent Joshi by a wide $233,000 to $59,000 from April 1-18, which the FEC calls the “pre-primary period.”
● IN-04 (R) (64-30 Trump, 61-37 Romney): Rep. Todd Rokita is leaving to run for the Senate, and the winner of the crowded GOP primary should have little trouble holding this seat, which includes Lafayette and some of Indianapolis’ western suburbs. The frontrunners appear to be Diego Morales, who served as a senior advisor to then-Gov. Mike Pence, and Steve Braun, who resigned as state Department of Workforce Development director to run here. (Yes you’ve read that name before in this piece, Braun is also a brother of Senate candidate Mike Braun, though the two haven’t campaigned together.) State Rep. Jim Baird, an Army veteran who lost his left arm in Vietnam, is also in the mix.
Morales has the support of some old Pence allies (the vice president has formally remained neutral), but he drew bad headlines in March when the Journal & Courier reported that he’d left several government jobs for poor performance and seemed to exaggerate his resume. Braun, who has done some considerable self-funding, outspent Baird $321,000 to $73,000 during the pre-primary period, while Morales spent $64,000.
A pro-Morales group called With Honor Fund has aired ads hitting Braun, while the pro-Braun Citizens for a Strong America has spent at least $300,000 attacking Morales and $18,000 against Baird. Morales, a Guatemalan immigrant, took umbrage with a CSA mailer encouraging voters to send him “back across town, where he actually lives!”, while another one charging that a gas tax Baird voted for cost Indiana a proverbial arm and a leg generated plenty of news coverage and condemnation.
● IN-06 (R) (68-27 Trump, 60-37 Romney): GOP Rep. Luke Messer is leaving his eastern Indiana seat to run for the Senate, and there’s one undisputed frontrunner in the primary to succeed him. Businessman Greg Pence, an older brother of Vice President Mike Pence and a close Messer ally, has benefited from his family’s name recognition and connections, and he’s mostly cleared the field. Pence has earned some negative attention both for staying largely out of sight on the campaign trail and for some serious business failures, but it’s unlikely to be enough to stop him. Pence’s most visible primary foe is self-funding businessman Jonathan Lamb, who has run some truly bizarre ads (They’re on youtube check’em out).
● IN-09 (D) (61-34 Trump, 57-41 Romney): Democrats hope that freshman Rep. Trey Hollingsworth’s very weak ties to the state and unimpressive fundraising will give them an opening in this southern Indiana seat. The two main Democrats competing to face him are Indiana University professor Liz Watson, who previously served as a senior Democratic staffer on the U.S. House’s Committee on Education and the Workforce, and civil rights attorney Dan Canon. EMILY’s List is backing Watson, who outspent Cannon $89,000 to $20,000 during the pre-primary period.
● NC-02 (D): (53-44 Trump, 56-43 Romney): Democrats are planning to target GOP Rep. George Holding in this suburban Raleigh seat. Tech executive Ken Romley, who has been self-funding much of his campaign, outspent former state Rep. Linda Coleman $254,000 to $34,000 during the pre-primary period. But Coleman, who lost competitive general elections for lieutenant governor in 2012 and 2016, likely began the race with considerably more name-recognition than Romley. In addition, in primaries so far in Texas and Illinois, we’ve generally seen women candidates performing well this cycle; if this pattern continues, it could help Coleman offset Romley’s considerable spending edge. Army veteran Wendy May, who would be the first transgender member of Congress, is also in, but she hasn’t reported raising anything.
● NC-03 (R): 61-37 Trump, 58-41 Romney): Twelve-term Republican Rep. Walter Jones has spent years voting against the House leadership’s priorities, and now he’s turned hostile to Trump’s policies: This Congress alone, the self-described “thorn in people’s ass” voted against the House version of Trumpcare and the tax bill, arguing that both were fiscally irresponsible. Jones faces a primary challenge from Craven County Commissioner Scott Dacey, who is arguing that this coastal seat needs a more reliable Trump ally.
Dacey outspent Jones $120,000 to $39,000 during the pre-primary period, and a mystery group called the Conservative Leadership Alliance began airing ads against Jones last month. But Jones, who announced during the campaign that he wouldn’t seek another term in 2020, has won more than his fair share of competitive primaries. Marine veteran Phil Law, who lost to Jones 65-20 in 2016, is running again, and he could split the anti-incumbent vote. The only poll we’ve seen was a late March survey from the conservative think-tank Civitas and conducted by an arm of SurveyUSA that gave Jones a 37-28 lead over Dacey, with Law at 15.
● NC-09 (R) (54-43 Trump, 55-44 Romney): Last cycle, Rep. Robert Pittenger won a three-way GOP primary with pastor Mark Harris by just a 35.0-34.5 margin. Pittenger was running for a redrawn seat that largely new to him while also facing an FBI and IRS investigation related to his old real estate company over loans he made to his 2012 congressional campaign. Harris is seeking a rematch, but now that the investigation has ended without charges and redistricting won’t be the same factor, Pittenger looks like he’s in much better shape this time around in this suburban Charlotte seat.
A March poll from SurveyUSA for the conservative Civitas Institute found Pittenger ahead 52-20, with little-known candidate Clarence Goins at 7. Pittenger’s campaign later released its own poll giving him a 59-26 edge, while even Harris’ own survey found the incumbent up 38-30. Pittenger outspent Harris $117,000 to $64,000 during the pre-primary period, and he’s aired many ads arguing that Harris opposed Trump in 2016. Whoever wins will quickly need to prepare for an expensive general election with solar energy businessman Dan McCready, who faces only a weak opponent in the Democratic primary.
● OH-Sen (R): Two wealthy Republicans are competing to take on Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, but Rep. Jim Renacci is the heavy favorite. Renacci picked up an endorsement from Donald Trump late in the race, while businessman Mike Gibbons never seemed to impress party leaders. What little polling there is has found that neither candidate is very well-known, but it would be a big surprise if Renacci loses to Gibbons, who doesn’t seem to have much of a base of support to draw from.
● OH-Gov (R & D): Republican incumbent and Trump critic John Kasich is termed out, and both parties have primaries to succeed him. On the GOP side, Attorney General Mike DeWine has the support of much of the party establishment over Lt. Gov. Mary Taylor, and he’s also outspent her. Taylor has attacked DeWine, who served 12 years in the U.S. Senate, as a member of that dreaded establishment. DeWine and his allies have spent heavily on the airwaves to hit Taylor, so they’re at least taking her seriously. But what little polling we’ve seen has shown DeWine consistently ahead by sizable margins, and it would be a huge upset if Taylor beat him.
The Democratic frontrunner is Richard Cordray, who narrowly lost re-election as attorney general to DeWine in 2010 and resigned in the fall as head of the federal Consumer Financial Protection Bureau to run for governor. His main opponent is former Rep. Dennis Kucinich, a longtime Cleveland politician and quixotic two-time presidential candidate. (Also a top ten member for one of your editors)
Cordray has the support of Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren (who first proposed the creation of the CFPB) and much of the state Democratic establishment, while Kucinich is relying on his old Cleveland base and several Bernie Sanders allies, though Sanders himself has remained neutral. State Sen. Joe Schiavoni never gained much traction, but he could do well in his Youngstown base; former state Supreme Court Justice Bill O’Neill is also running.
Cordray has a huge financial edge over Kucinich, but the former congressman got some last-minute help when a super PAC run by a Republican donor friendly with Kucinich ran a flight of ads hitting Cordray from the left. Still, a Kucinich win would be an upset, though it’s something we can’t rule out. Kucinich touted his longtime support for Medicare for all and has hit Cordray for his past A-ratings from the NRA, and even Cordray’s allies concede he’s not an exciting speaker.
Polling has been light here, but the last couple of surveys have given Cordray double-digit leads, albeit with large numbers of undecideds.
● OH-12 (R & D) (53-42 Trump, 54-44 Romney): GOP Rep. Pat Tiberi resigned to take a job leading an industry lobbying group, and that’s created a bit of an odd situation in this suburban Columbus seat. There will be an Aug. 7 special election to complete the final months of Tiberi’s term, but the primary for both the special election and the regular two-year term will take place simultaneously on Tuesday. As a consequence, there’s always a small chance that someone could win their party’s nomination for just one of the two contests.
The crowded GOP primary has turned into a classic establishment vs. insurgent battle. Defending Main Street, a super PAC set up to stop anti-establishment candidates from winning GOP primaries, has spent at least $400,000 on ads for state Sen. Troy Balderson. And Tiberi’s used the remaining funds in his campaign account to air ads staring the former congressman praising Balderson.
On the other side, the House Freedom Caucus’ allied House Freedom Action group has been spending for Liberty Township Trustee Melanie Leneghan. The anti-tax Club for Growth hasn’t formally taken sides, but they’ve been airing ads hitting Balderson and have said they’d be happy with Leneghan.
The only poll we’ve seen was a mid-April Balderson poll that showed him leading Leneghan 17-11, with economist Tim Kane and state Sen. Kevin Bacon at 10, while Delaware County Prosecutor Carol O’Brien was at 7; Bacon and O’Brien seem more establishment-oriented, while the Club for Growth also said it was comfortable with Kane. In a familiar storyline, GOP insiders privately fretted to the media a few weeks ago that Leneghan is a weak candidate who could cost them this seat in the August special.
On the Democratic side, local leaders have consolidated behind Franklin County Recorder Danny O’Connor. His main primary foe is former Franklin County Sheriff Zach Scott, who badly lost a 2015 race for mayor of Columbus to Andrew Ginther (who is supporting O’Connor) and narrowly lost renomination the next year against a candidate backed by Ginther and his allies. O’Connor only outspent Scott $36,000 to $20,000 during the pre-primary period, but he had a $121,000 to $18,000 cash-on-hand edge on April 18. Farmer John Russell, who lost a 2016 race for the state House, is also in.
● OH-16 (R) (56-39 Trump, 53-45 Romney): The GOP primary to succeed Senate candidate Jim Renacci in this very gerrymandered seat, which includes parts of the Akron, Canton, and Cleveland areas, pits the old party establishment against a more Trumpesque candidate. On the one side is Anthony Gonzalez, who was a football star at the Ohio State University and later went on to play for the Indianapolis Colts. Gonzalez has the backing of influential donors and local political figures, while the U.S. Chamber of Commerce launched a $300,000 buy for him in the final week of the campaign.
His opponent is state Rep. Christina Hagan, who was a prominent Trump backer in 2016 when Ohio Gov. John Kasich was also seeking the GOP presidential nomination. Hagan has an endorsement from the NRA as well as from two of the most prominent people to be fired from the Trump administration: Anthony Scaramucci and Sebastian Gorka. Hagan has pitched herself as a Trump ally and argued that Gonzalez, who worked in Silicon Valley before he came home to run for office, is an insider. Gonzalez outspent Hagan by a wide $272,000 to $74,000 during the pre-primary period, and most of the outside spending has been for him.
● WV-Sen (R): Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin is one of the GOP’s top targets in the Senate this year, and three noteworthy Republicans are competing to face him. The party establishment hasn’t shown much of a preference between Rep. Evan Jenkins or Attorney General Patrick Morrisey, but they’ve made it very clear they view former Massey Energy CEO Don Blankenship as dangerously unelectable, and they’ve spent heavily to stop him. One day before the primary, Trump even tweeted that voters should support Jenkins or Morrisey but not Blankenship.
It’s not hard to see why so many Republicans fear that Blankenship would be a toxic nominee. After a 2010 explosion at Massey’s Upper Big Branch mine resulted in the deaths of 29 of Blankenship’s employees, he spent a year in prison for conspiring to violate federal mine safety laws. While most people with such a record would gladly slink off into obscurity, not Blankenship: He declared himself a political prisoner of the Obama administration, spending millions of his own money on ads making that argument (with racist flourishes), as well as attacks on Manchin, Morrisey, and Jenkins. It’s a message that could indeed work in a state like West Virginia.
The good news for Blankenship enemies like Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (whom Blankenship infamously dubbed “Cocaine Mitch” in a campaign ad) is that recent public polls show him firmly in third place, while Jenkins and Morrisey are locked in a tight race. However, they’re still acting worried, and private GOP polls reportedly showed Blankenship taking a small lead in the final days of the race.
And indeed, Jenkins and Morrisey have mostly been attacking one another, though Morrisey belatedly started going after Blankenship in the final weekend of the campaign. Jenkins has hit Morrisey’s past work as a lobbyist, while Morrisey has gone after Jenkins for being a Democrat until he ran for Congress in 2013. Morrisey has also benefited from some outside spending from a super PAC funded by conservative mega donor Richard Uihlein. National Democrats, meanwhile, have also spent big to influence the race. While it originally looked like they were attacking both Jenkins and Morrisey equally in order to help Blankenship, Team Blue has spent almost all of its money against Jenkins while mostly leaving Morrisey alone.
● WV-02 (D) (66-29 Trump, 60-38 Romney): This central West Virginia seat is very much a longshot Democratic target, but Team Blue hopes that Rep. Alex Mooney, who, believe it or not, was a member of the Maryland legislature before joining the Mountain State’s congressional delegation in 2014, could be vulnerable in a good year. Army veteran Aaron Scheinberg is facing off with former U.S. State Department official Talley Sergent in the Democratic primary. Scheinberg outspent Sergent $92,000 to $65,000 during the pre-primary period, and he had considerably more money left over. However, Scheinberg only moved to West Virginia from New York in 2017, and while he touts his family’s roots in the state, he could negate Team Blue’s best line of attack against the carpetbagging Mooney.
● WV-03 (R) (73-23 Trump, 65-33 Romney): Evan Jenkins’ 2014 win over Democratic incumbent Nick Rahall made him the first Republican to represent southern West Virginia in generations, and there’s a crowded GOP field to succeed the Senate candidate. There’s no obvious frontrunner, and major outside groups also haven’t taken sides here.
Del. Carol Miller outspent fellow Del. Rupie Phillips, a longtime Democrat who only became a Republican last year, $179,000 to $135,000 during the pre-primary period, while former state party chair Conrad Lucus deployed $135,000. Del. Marty Gearheart and former Del. Rick Snuffer, who lost to Rahall in 2004 and 2012, are also in, but they’ve spent little between them. Team Blue is hoping that this seat’s old Democratic heritage could give them an opening, and a few candidates are competing for the nod. However, only state Sen. Richard Ojeda, an Iraq veteran who was brutally beaten at a campaign event in 2016, has spent much money, and he’s also attracted a good deal of national attention
President Donald Trump on Tuesday delivered his first State of the Union address, using the occasion to make a sober appeal to unity and challenged his Democratic antagonists to cooperate in overhauling the nation’s immigration system and rebuilding its dated infrastructure.
The hour and twenty-minute-long speech pointedly lacked the partisan barbs that have become to define Mr. Trump’s presidency. Instead, Trump-the-optimistic-deal-maker was on display Tuesday, inviting bipartisan cooperation on his new year’s agenda of rebuilding the nation both economically and culturally.
“Tonight, I call upon all of us to set aside our differences, to seek common ground and to summon the unity we need to delivery for the people,” he said.
Beyond the pomp and showmanship, here’s what the speech means:
- The president wants an immigration deal, with caveats. Trump has said both publically and privately he wants to protect undocumented immigrants who were brought to the United States as children, popularly known as Dreamers, but he appropriated the movement’s language for his own purposes in last night’s speech. “My duty,” he said, “and the sacred duty of every elected official in this chamber, is to defend Americans–to protect their safety, their families, their communities, and their right to the American Dream. Because Americans are dreamers, too.” He offered what he called a compromise: trading a pathway to citizenship for some 1.8 million Dreamers in exchange for border wall funding along the US-Mexico border, new caps on family-based migration, and a shuttering of the diversity visa lottery program. While he extended “an open hand to work with members of both parties,” glimmers of the old Trump was still on display. Seated in First Lady Melania Trump’s viewing box, Trump pointed to four parents grieving the loss of children who were murdered by members of the MS-13 gang.
- The president wants to build things again, but doesn’t know what, where, or how. “America is a nation of builders. We built the Empire State Building in just 1 year,” Trump said. “Isn’t it a disgrace that it can now take 10 years just to get a minor permit approved for the building of a simple road?” The president talked up his plan for infrastructure reform in broad terms, saying he would marry federal, state, and local government revenue to cobble together a $1.5 trillion package but didn’t say how the money would be spent or where.
- The president wants to police reciprocal trade and IP. Mr. Trump, who often rails against the North American Free Trade Agreement and the 12-nation Trans-Pacific Partnership as markers of bad trade negotiations, said he would work in the new year to “fix bad trade deals and negotiation new ones.” Enforcement actions will remain a chief concern of the administration in the new year, and the president directly pledged to protect American intellectual property–widely regarded as a shot across the bow of China, who the president regularly chides for trade and IP abuses.
- Gitmo is staying open. The White House released during the president’s speech a new executive order keep open the controversial military detention facility at Guantanamo Bay. The order, which reverses parts of a 2009 directive signed by President Barack Obama, allows for the possibility of new enemy combatants being sent to the prison “when lawful and necessary.”
- The president has his eye on “Little Rocket Man.” President Trump was more measured when he discussed North Korea, avoiding the Twitter taunts and big button braggadocio, and instead spoke about the brutality of the “depraved” regime who’s “reckless pursuit of nuclear missiles could very soon threaten our homeland.” Ever the showman, Mr. Trump invited a North Korean defector to attend, receiving a standing ovation as he held over his head the crutches he needed to walk after enduring brutal torture. He also singled out the case of Otto Warmbier, a student at the University of Virginia who was traveling in North Korea while arrested and charged with crimes against the state. Brutally injured while detained, he was released recently to the United States and died shortly thereafter.
“A partial shutdown starting Saturday would in some ways not resemble the one in 2013. They could have made the shutdown in 2013 much less impactful, but they chose to make it worse. The only conclusion I can draw is they did so for political purposes. So it will look different this time around.” – Mick Mulvaney, Director, OMB, 1/19/18
What would be the effects of a government shutdown?
Agencies are required to submit plans to the OMB outlining anticipated staffing levels during a shutdown.
Estimated furloughs range from 99.3 percent of those at the NLRB to 3.8 percent of those at GSA. Workers deemed “exempt” for protection of property and people are considered exempted from furlough.
Government contractors would not be paid during a shutdown.
Federal grant recipients
Administering federal grants could be affected by a shutdown.
Social Security and other government benefits
Recipients of Social Security, SSI, unemployment insurance, TANF, food stamps and some other programs would continue to receive benefits. The programs’ spending is not dependent on Congress’ explicit funding. However, some processes related to applying for or appealing a denial or reduction of these benefits might be stopped.
Medicare and Medicaid
In the last shutdown, some physician payments were slightly delayed, but the programs continued running.
Congress has already explicitly funded VA hospitals, so they would not be affected by a shutdown.
Local parks, schools, libraries and government buildings
Since these entities are controlled locally and not by the federal government, they would not be affected by a shutdown.
The courts have at least three more weeks of funding after a government shutdown.
Congress would continue to work, though some low-level staff may not get paid.
Most federal office buildings
Most departments and agencies would be shut down, and their employees sent home.
While the US Embassy and Montreal consulate remain open, it is unclear whether all the personnel from the various agencies that form the working groups would be cleared to travel and work.
National parks and monuments
OMB Director Mick Mulvaney declared at Friday’s White House news briefing that the parks would stay open during a shutdown.
Smithsonian museums and the National Zoo
The museums and the zoo have funding to stay open through Sunday but would close on Monday. However, we assume the animals would still be fed.
US Postal Service
The US Postal Service is an independent agency, so it would not be affected by a government shutdown.
Some passport offices would likely remain open. However, those located inside federal buildings would close.
Air traffic controllers, TSA officers and customs agents would continue to work at airports.
Special Counsel Mueller’s Russia investigation
The probe’s funding is approved by Congress outside of the normal government funding process, so it would not be affected by the shutdown.
Active duty troops would continue to work, though some training exercises would cease.
IRS customer service
Automated processes would continue, but all processes that require people, such as customer service, would close.
Federal financial aid
Though 90 percent of Education Department staff would be sent home, people assigned to federal financial aid would continue working.
USDA inspection of meat, poultry and eggs would continue.