Dentons’ Public Policy team has developed a US House and Senate Elections Preview to provide the latest developments as we approach the November elections.
Amy Coney Barrett joined the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Seventh Circuit in October 2017. A graduate of Notre Dame University Law School, Barrett clerked for the late conservative Justice Antonin Scalia and later returned to Notre Dame’s law school as a member of the faculty. If confirmed, Barrett would be the fifth woman to serve on the Court and the youngest justice confirmed since Clarence Thomas was elevated to the Court at age 43 in 1991. In preparation, Dentons’ Public Policy team has developed a Barrett Confirmation primer to provide insight into the confirmation process.
As we mourn the loss of a true giant, at all of 5’1’’, we look to the nomination process to fill Justice Ginsburg’s seat.
The President and Senate Majority leader have made clear that there will be a nominee and the confirmation process will begin immediately. The expectation is that a nominee will be announced over the weekend. In preparation, Dentons’ Public Policy team has developed a Supreme Court Nomination Primer to provide insight into the nomination process, a look at past confirmations and a review of the Court’s fall schedule.
To respond to the coronavirus health crisis and the enormous economic downturn caused by the pandemic, the House of Representatives just now passed by voice vote the CARES Act, the US$2.2 trillion stimulus package that the Senate passed late Wednesday night by a 96-0 vote. The bill now goes to President Trump who has said that he will sign it into law immediately.
This bill, the third legislative response to the coronavirus crisis, marks the biggest economic rescue package in US history. Passage of the bill marked the end to nearly week-long negotiations between senators, House Speaker Pelosi and the Trump administration.
Among its many provisions, the bill provides US$150 billion in aid for the health care industry. US$100 billion of which will be widely available.to hospitals and providers. It has substantial support for laid off employees, small businesses, non-profits, and numerous other industries that have been reeling from the economic impact of the virus. The wide-reaching bill includes a US$1,200 one-time check for individuals who make up to US$75,000 annually and married up to US$150,000. It provides US$377 billion in small loan relief loan to numerous businesses, defers federal student loan payments through September 30 and provides US$260 billion in unemployment benefits.
The bill also includes a US$500 billion infusion into the Treasury Department’s Exchange Stabilization Fund, to be used to make loans, loan guarantees, and other investments to businesses, states, and municipalities in 2020. Of that amount, it would provide as loans and loan guarantees as much as: US$25 billion in direct lending for passenger airlines, ticket agents, and aviation inspection and repair services, US$17 billion for unspecified businesses critical to national security and US$4 billion for cargo airlines. As much as US$454 billion, and any other unused loan funds, would be available to make loans, loan guarantees, and other investments to support programs or facilities established within the Federal Reserve. Funds could be used to purchase obligations or other interests from businesses, states, or municipalities directly or in secondary markets.
Subject to returning to Washington, DC on 24 hours’ notice, the Senate has now adjourned until April 20 and the House also is not expected to return to DC for at least a comparable period. We will continue to update you on all legislative and regulatory developments in connection with the COVID-19 crisis.
Click here to download the Senate bill.
Click here to download a section by section summary of the bill.
The Federal Election Commission (FEC) updated the federal contribution limits for the 2019-2020 election. The new per election limits were effective January 1, 2019. Below is a chart that explains the new limits on each donor.
The chart above illustrates the new increased contribution limits to the respective donors. Individuals can now contribute $2,800 per election to a candidate, an increase of $100 from the 2018 cycle. This means that individuals may now give up to $5,600 per candidate per cycle (combined to include both the primary and general election limits). Due to changes in inflation, these limits are increased every odd-numbered year to balance out differences.
The contribution limit to national party committees can now contribute $35,500 per year, an increase of $1,600 from last year. The annual max contributions to the national party committee accounts have been increased to $106,500, an increase of $4,800.
Note that traditional PAC contributions are not indexed for inflation. This means that PAC contributions remain the same from 2018.
House Democratic and Republican leadership have nearly finalized the grueling task of doling out committee assignments, capping weeks of acute jockeying by freshman lawmakers hoping to earn influential postings.
An opaque process tightly controlled by party leaders, the committee sweepstakes represents one of the earliest and most significant influences on a new legislator’s career trajectory, as panel membership often drives member legislative priorities and opens important avenues of fundraising opportunities.
House rules generally limit members to serving on no more than two standing committees and four subcommittees, with the four-most prized including Ways and Means, which writes tax laws; Energy and Commerce, which claims the broadest non-tax-oriented jurisdiction of any committee and has principal responsibility for telecommunications, consumer protection, food and drug safety, public health, the supply and delivery of energy, and interstate and foreign commerce; Financial Services (also known as the Banking Committee), which oversees the totality of the financial services sector; and Appropriations, which is responsible for passing spending blueprints for the federal government.
While the final composition of every committee is still being negotiated, Dentons’ bipartisan public policy team has assembled here the most up-to-date index of assignments available.
We’ll update this space as new assignments are announced.
Election prognosticators argue that the “holy trinity” of POTUS approval, Right Track/Wrong Track and Generic Ballot preference foretell the outcome in November.
Looking back over the last 9 midterms, we see that presidents with a sub-50 percent approval rating lose an average of 40 seats in the House and 6 seats in the Senate. We also note that the summer Right Track/Wrong Track number seems to align better than the generic ballot as an early indicator of seat loss.
By the numbers:
- Democrats in 56 House districts surpassed Republican incumbents in second-quarter fundraising, according to the latest Federal Election Commission filings. Sixteen of those House Republicans finished the quarter with less cash in their campaign accounts than Democratic opponents, while no Democratic members lag their Republican challengers in cash.
- There are 23 House seats held by a Republican incumbent that Hillary Clinton won in 2016: AZ-O2, CA-10, CA-21, CA-25, CA-39, CA-45, CA-48, CA-49, CO-06, FL-26, FL-27, IL-06, KS-03, MN-03, NJ-07, NY-24, PA-06, PA-07, TX-07, TX-32, VA-10, and WA-08.
- There are 12 House seats held by a Democratic incumbent that Donald Trump won in 2016: AZ-01, IA-02, IL-17, MN-01, MN-07, MN-08, NH-01, NJ-05, NV-03, NY-18, PA-17, and WI-03.
- So far in 2018, Democratic House primaries featuring at least one woman, one man and no incumbent, woman have woman in 70 of 106 cases (66 percent). One the GOP side, just 11 of 29 won (38 percent). Democrats have nominated women in 85 of 179 (47 percent) of 2018 House races, excluding incumbents. On the GOP side, just 24 of 139 (17 percent).
- The House GOP has 42 open or vacant seats, the most since the Gatsby Era: 19 Solid R, 4 Likely R, 7 Lean R, 4 Toss up, 5 Lean D, 3 Likely D.