Primaries in Conn., Minn., Wisc.: what to watch for and expect as polls close

Primaries in three states on Tuesday will set the contours of some of fall’s highest profile gubernatorial  and US House contests, as both parties eye possible and long-pursued upsets in Connecticut, Minnesota, and Wisconsin.

Connecticut

CT-Gov (D & R): Democratic Gov. Dan Malloy decided not to seek a third term in the face of an ongoing economic crisis that’s made him incredibly unpopular, and Republicans have a real chance to score a pickup in the fall.

Five Republicans are competing here, and there’s no obvious frontrunner. The state party endorsed Danbury Mayor Mark Boughton, who has led the few polls we’ve seen. Boughton, along with businessman Steve Obsitnik and former Trumbull First Selectman Tim Herbst, are participating in the state’s public financing program, which gives them each $1.35 million for the primary but caps their spending at $1.6 million.

Two businessmen, David Stemerman and Bob Stefanowski, are mostly self-funding their bids and are therefore not limited in how much they can spend. Stemerman has spent a hefty $6.2 million during his campaign, while Stefanowski has spent $2.9 million. Both Stefanowski and Stemerman have also aired commercials attacking one another while largely laying off their rivals. A survey earlier this month from the Democratic firm Tremont Public Advisors had Boughton leading Stefanowski 32-22, with Stemerman at 17.

Things are much more lopsided for the Democrats. The state party establishment, as well as a number of prominent unions, are supporting wealthy businessman Ned Lamont, who notably defeated Sen. Joe Lieberman in the 2006 primary before losing the general election to Lieberman’s independent campaign; Lamont also lost the 2010 primary to Malloy. The only other Democrat in the race is Bridgeport Mayor Joe Ganim, who spent several years in prison for corruption but regained his old office in 2015. Lamont has outspent Ganim $2.6 million to $600,000 during the campaign.

CT-05 (D & R) (50-46 Clinton, 54-45 Obama): Democratic Rep. Elizabeth Esty announced she would retire in the spring after news broke that she’d inadequately handled an abusive staffer.

Former Simsbury First Selectwoman Mary Glassman narrowly won the endorsement of the Democratic Party endorsement over former high school teacher Jahana Hayes, the 2016 National Teacher of the Year. Glassman has the backing of several of Connecticut’s House members, but several unions and Sen. Chris Murphy are supporting Hayes, who would be the first black woman to represent the state in Congress. Glassman outspent Hayes $220,000 to $59,000 from July 1 to July 25 (which the FEC calls the “pre-primary period”), but Hayes had more money in the bank for the final weeks of the race.

This western Connecticut seat has been competitive territory in the past, and Republicans hope that retiring Gov. Dan Malloy’s unpopularity will give them an opening. However, none of the three Republican candidates have raised much money. The top fundraiser is retired psychology professor Ruby O’Neill, who outspent businessman Rich DuPont $57,000 to $33,000 in the pre-primary period. Former Meriden Mayor Manny Santos spent only $6,000 during this time, but he has the state party endorsement.

Minnesota

MN-Gov (D & R): Democratic Gov. Mark Dayton is retiring after two terms, and both parties will fight hard to win this contest in the fall. The Democratic primary is a three-way race between Attorney General Lori Swanson, Rep. Tim Walz, and state Rep. Erin Murphy.

Swanson only entered the race in early June, but she brought plenty of name recognition with her. However, her campaign has faced some tough stories in the two months since. News broke in July that Rep. Rick Nolan, who is Swanson’s running mate, had hired a former employee for his 2016 re-election campaign even though the aide had previously left Nolan’s legislative staff after multiple women accused him of sexual harassment. In the final week of the contest, former staffers at the attorney general’s office charged that Swanson had pressured government employees into doing political work for her. Two polls taken in July, before the Nolan story broke, showed Swanson leading the primary, but we have no new data since then.

Walz, who represents a competitive congressional seat in the southern part of the state, looked like the frontrunner throughout most of the race, and he and his allies have outspent the rest of the field. However, Murphy, who has been trying to run to the left of the pack, has Dayton’s support as well as the official endorsement of the state Democratic Party.

On the GOP side, former Gov. Tim Pawlenty is seeking to regain his old seat eight years after leaving office and embarking on an unsuccessful presidential bid. He faces Hennepin County Commissioner Jeff Johnson, who lost the 2014 general election to Dayton 50-44. Pawlenty has considerably more money and name recognition, and the few polls we’ve seen have shown him far ahead. Johnson, however, has the state GOP’s backing, and he’s tried to position himself to Pawlenty’s right. The former governor went up with a negative TV ad last month, so he’s at least taking Johnson seriously as a threat.

MN-01 (R) (53-39 Trump, 50-48 Obama): Democratic Rep. Tim Walz is leaving this competitive southern Minnesota seat behind to run for governor, and Republicans are hoping its sharp swing towards Trump will give them a big opening in the fall. The GOP candidates are state Sen. Carla Nelson and businessman Jim Hagedorn, who narrowly lost to Walz in 2016 in a race that had looked safe for Team Blue until election night.

Nelson outspent Hagedorn $126,000 to $93,000 during the pre-primary period, though he had more money left for the final weeks of the contest. Nelson does have the NRA in her corner, while Hagedorn has the party endorsement. Still, some Republicans are anxious about nominating Hagedorn, who has a long history of misogynist comments, birther ramblings, and comments about “ungrateful” and “dead Indians.” Whoever emerges will take on former Defense Department official Dan Feehan, who faces little opposition in the Democratic primary.

MN-05 (D) (73-18 Clinton, 74-24 Obama): Rep. Keith Ellison announced on the final day of candidate filing that he was leaving this safely blue Minneapolis seat to run for attorney general to succeed Lori Swanson, who herself had just announced a last-minute bid for governor. Several Democrats quickly entered the race for Ellison’s seat, and the main candidates look like former Minnesota House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher, state Rep. Ilhan Omar, and state Sen. Patricia Torres Ray.

Kelliher narrowly lost the 2010 primary for governor to Mark Dayton. Omar, who would be the nation’s first Somali-American member of Congress, has endorsements from Dayton, Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey, and the state party. Torres Ray would also make history as Minnesota’s first Hispanic member of Congress, but she’s raised considerably less money than her two main opponents.

MN-08 (D) (54-39 Trump, 52-46 Obama): Democratic Rep. Rick Nolan is retiring from a seat in the Iron Range in the northeast corner of the state. This area is ancestrally Democratic but shifted hard towards Trump, and Republicans are excited about St. Louis County Commissioner Pete Stauber, who faces no serious primary opposition.

There are three main Democratic candidates. State Rep. Jason Metsa and former state Rep. Joe Radinovich, who was Nolan’s campaign manager during his tight 2016 re-election campaign, have the most money and support from party elites. Radinovich, who has had the airwaves to himself, outspent Metsa $124,000 to $82,000 during the pre-primary period, and they both had a similar amount of cash left for the final weeks of the race. However, while retired Duluth news anchor Michelle Lee has raised and spent very little money or attracted much support from Democratic power players, she does have name recognition from her decades on TV.

Mining is one of the key issues in this contest. Mesta is the Democrat closest to mining interests and he has the backing of the United Steelworkers. Lee in particular has emphasized her opposition to local copper-nickel mining and its effects on the environment. Radinovich has tried to position himself in the middle on this issue while focusing more on healthcare.

Vermont

VT Gov (R): Gov. Phil Scott, a centrist Republican stock-car driver, was once one of the most popular governors in the country — beloved by Republicans, Democrats and independents. But then, in April, he signed three historic gun-control laws, drawing fierce protests from residents of this traditionally pro-gun state. In a Morning Consult poll conducted after the signing, Scott’s popularity among Republicans dropped by 26 percentage points, and he now has a -15 net approval rating with voters of his own party. That could be a problem on Tuesday, given that shopkeeper Keith Stern is challenging Scott from the right, specifically criticizing Scott for signing the gun bills. The Republican Governors Association is acting like this is a competitive race: It has invested more than $1 million in a PAC supporting Scott’s re-election.

If Scott does lose the primary, then Stern, a more mainstream conservative, would instantly become a heavy underdog in this dark-blue state. (Going by our new and improved partisan lean metric,1 Vermont is 24 points more Democratic-leaning than the country as a whole.) Although none of the Democratic candidates has lit the world on fire financially, the favorite in the Democratic primary is probably former Vermont Electric Cooperative CEO Christine Hallquist, who, if elected, would be the nation’s first transgender governor.

Wisconsin

WI-Gov (D): Democrats have a crowded contest to take on GOP Gov. Scott Walker. State Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Evers, the only statewide official running, has had decisive leads in the few polls we’ve seen, while his rivals have all been far behind.

However, former state Rep. Kelda Helen Roys, who would be the first woman to serve as governor, spent considerably more money than the rest of the field during July, which could help her get her name out late in the race. Professional Fire Fighters of Wisconsin president Mahlon Mitchell, who would be Wisconsin’s first black governor, has also spent a credible amount of money, and he’s backed by several unions. Attorney Matt Flynn, campaign finance reform activist Mike McCabe, Madison Mayor Paul Soglin, and state Sen. Kathleen Vinehout are also in.

WI-Sen (R): Republicans have hosted an extremely expensive contest to take on Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin. In one corner is businessman and Marine veteran Kevin Nicholson, who has benefited from over $10 million in spending from groups supported by conservative megadonor Richard Uihlein. In the other is state Sen. Leah Vukmir, who has received $2.5 million in air support from groups funded by Diane Hendricks, another conservative megadonor, and the Metropolitan Milwaukee Association of Commerce.

Nicholson has pitched himself as a conservative outsider, while Vukmir is much closer to the state GOP establishment and touts endorsements from both the state party and most of the state’s House delegation (including retiring Speaker Paul Ryan). Vukmir and her allies have taken aim at Nicholson’s tenure as president of the College Democrats of America, including his 2000 speech at the Democratic National Convention in support of Al Gore. Nicholson and his supporters have hit back against Vukmir for expressing past doubts about Donald Trump. A few polls in July showed Nicholson ahead, but we haven’t seen any fresh numbers in weeks.

WI-01 (D) (53-42 Trump, 52-47 Romney): Speaker Paul Ryan is retiring from this southern Wisconsin seat, and the GOP quickly closed ranks behind attorney Bryan Steil. Democrats are hoping to make a play for this district, and they have a battle between ironworker Randy Bryce and Janesville School Board member Cathy Myers.

Bryce entered the race last year with a strong announcement video promoting him as a blue-collar American who will stand up to the GOP, which helped him raise gobs of money. He also has the support of the DCCC, Bernie Sanders, and several unions. However, Bryce has attracted some bad headlines over the last year. Most notably, he only paid off some old debts, including $1,300 in child support and a $2,000 loan from almost two decades ago, well after he kicked off his campaign. Myers has raised considerably less money and generated much less attention, either good or bad.

A midterms deep dive: a Dentons elections report

We are less than 150 days from November’s general elections. Roughly half of the state primary election contests, as well as a few special elections, are behind us, and the contours of the campaign battlefield for the November general election are taking shape.

So it’s an excellent opportunity for an update on the battle for control of the US House and Senate, and a look at the key races for governor and attorney general, as well as seats in state legislatures around the country.

  • The GOP currently enjoys a two-seat majority in the US Senate and a 23-seat majority in the US House of Representatives. In the Senate, Democrats are defending 26 seats to the GOP’s nine. As mandated by the Constitution, all 435 House seats are on the ballot in November.
  • In the states, the GOP currently holds 33 governorships, the Democrats have 16, and there is one Independent. As a result of retirements, the GOP will be defending 26 governors’ seats while the Democrats will be defending only 10. Elections for state legislators will be held in 46 states. In addition, 35 of 50 attorney general seats will be contested this election cycle. In 43 states, the attorney general is directly elected and 30 of states states will hold elections for the position this November. Moreover, 4 of the 5 states where the attorney general is appointed by the governor will hold elections for governor. Main, the sole state where the attorney general is appointed by the state legislature, is also holding legislative elections this November. Of the 99 total state legislative chambers in the US, the GOP currently controls 67 of them.

A few truisms about midterm elections:

  • While President Donald Trump won’t be on the ballot this November, his presence will be felt and will surely influence many House, Senate and even state races, for better and for worse.
  • Additionally, the party out of power–that is, the party not in the White House–always has the edge on voter intensity and enthusiasm. Midterms are often very unkind to the party in the White House.
  • Finally, history has shown that the generic ballot question, which simply asks voters which party they would prefer to control Congress, is fairly reliable metric of how many House seats turn over to the other party in the general election. (The most recent Real Clear Politics polling average has the generic ballot ballot at D+7.6.)

The answers to the following questions will help inform the path forward:

  • Just how large a shadow will President Trump cast on the federal races, or will those races turn primarily on local issues not involving the president?
  • Will a relatively strong national economy cause voters to “vote their pocketbooks” and overlook both their concerns about the president’s tweets and their unhappiness with congressional gridlock in Washington?
  • How much of a role will the #metoo movement, and women generally, play in the outcome of the elections?
  • With Democratic turnout this fall expected to be close to historic levels for a midterm election, what, if anything, can the GOP do to fire up its base and get them to voting booths this fall?

What else do we know at the movement? We know that there are more women candidates running for office, from both parties, than at any time in our history. We know that Democrats are leading the fundraising race at the candidate level but are still struggling at the national committee level. We know that retirements at the federal level, especially for the GOP, are reaching historic proportions and that those open seats are particularly vulnerable to national political sentiment.

Above all else, we know that events–nationally, locally, and on the world stage–that are presently unforeseeable have the potential to upstage all that we think we know today.

For a deep dive into the map, polling, historical data, and anecdotal evidence for virtually every election this fall, download Dentons’ latest election report here.

Wisconsin drug take back initiative nets 63,000 pounds of unused meds

The following comes by way of Dentons50 partner firm Capitol Consultants

Attorney General Brad Schimel announced Wisconsin had become the national leader in drug take backs, netting some 63,541 lbs. of unused medications as a result of its Drug Take Back events on Saturday, April 28, 2018, at nearly 390 permanent drug collection receptacles located throughout the state.

Schimel also announced Wisconsin’s Sexual Assault Kit Initiative (WiSAKI), a statewide effort to address the decades-long accumulation of previously un-submitted sexual assault kits (SAKs) that were in the possession of local law enforcement agencies and hospitals, has completed inventorying all of these kits, collected those designated for testing, and submitted them to contracted laboratories for testing. Testing will be complete by the end of 2018.

Malloy vetoes ECS funding bill, prompting likely veto override session

The following state legislative speed read comes by way of Dentons50 partner firm the Connecticut Group.

Dannel Malloy vetoed his first bill from the 2018 regular session Friday, blocking a proposal that would have prevented he and future governors from making cuts to education-cost sharing (“ECS”) grants as a means of balancing budget shortfalls.

Malloy has used his ECS rescission powers in past years to reduce funding to some of the wealthiest municipalities in the state, which he argues can afford to absorb the cuts.

The bill–H.B. 5121, An Act Prohibiting the Executive Branch from Making Rescissions Or Other Reductions To The Education Cost Sharing Grant During The Fiscal Year–passed the Senate unanimously and received just 32 nay votes in the House, virtually ensuring that the governor’s veto will be overridden if the legislature deems it worthy to do so.

After turbulent Spring, here’s New York’s new landscape

Although New York State’s political waters are never calm, three major political events since the beginning of April have left things downright turbulent in Albany.

Namely, the entrance of Cynthia Nixon into the gubernatorial race, the dissolution of the Independent Democratic Conference (IDC), and the resignation of Attorney General Eric Schneiderman. All three developments have had different political consequences, which the Dentons New York Public Policy Team has briefly summarized below.

Cynthia Nixon’s announcement of her gubernatorial candidacy seemed to take the Governor by surprise, although many in the Albany political world expected that a challenge would eventually emerge from the political left, where Cuomo has some serious vulnerabilities. Nixon’s entrance into the race has quickly pulled the Governor’s policies to the political left, in a clear effort to appease the liberal flank of the Democratic Party. In an interesting twist, the Working Families Party, which has historically been the de facto political organization of the left wing of the Democratic Party, endorsed Nixon for Governor. While unlikely to defeat the Governor, if she stays in the race on the WFP line beyond the democratic primary she could prove to be a drag on Cuomo’s reelection efforts.

In early-April, the Independent Democratic Conference, the 8-member conference of breakaway democrats who had worked in a coalition with the Republican majority conference since 2012, announced their decision to dissolve and return to the mainline democratic conference in the Senate. Senator Jeff Klein, the IDC leader, has since become the deputy minority leader under Senator Andrea Stewart-Cousins. The reunification of the two democratic conferences removes a major barrier in the democrats’ effort to take the majority in the Senate after decades of Republican control. Governor Cuomo’s newfound enthusiasm and interest in supporting the Senate Democrats, combined with democratic reunification, the expected “blue wave” in November and a number of senate republican retirements, has many in Albany wondering whether 2018 is the year that Democrats will take the majority in the state senate.

Finally, in early-May, the New Yorker published a report alleging that New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman had physically abused at least four women during his tenure as Attorney General. These shocking revelations forced Schneiderman to step-down as Attorney General within just hours of publication and sent shock waves through the New York political world. Within days, elected Democrats began jockeying for position to succeed Schneiderman. Ultimately, a joint session of the legislature nominated Barbara Underwood, the state Solicitor General and acting Attorney General to finish Schneiderman’s term, leaving the slate clean for voters to decide each party’s candidate in the September primaries. New York Democrats coalesced around New York City Public Advocate Letitia (Tish) James at their convention last week, however others have expressed interest in primarying her including former Cuomo staffer Leecia Eve, former Gubernatorial and Congressional Candidate Zephyr Teachout, as well as former U.S. Attorney Preet Bharara — who is being urged to by some to run.

On the Republican side, the state convention process in mid-May nominated a slate of statewide candidates. Dutchess County Executive Marc Molinaro received unanimous support from his party as the gubernatorial candidate to take on Cuomo. Republican leadership has high hopes for the 42-year old candidate, who is seen as a moderate Republican with a track record of success in traditionally blue areas of the state. Julie Killian, who just lost in an expensive special election for state Senate in Westchester, was chosen as Molinaro’s Lieutenant Governor running mate. Republicans also picked Manhattan attorney Keith Wofford as their candidate for Attorney General, becoming the first black Republican to receive his party’s nod for the position, and Jonathan Trichter, a former Democratic operative who recently switched his party enrollment, as their Comptroller candidate to take on Tom DiNapoli.

With Connecticut’s legislative session in rear view, elections on horizon

The following legislative recap and elections forecast comes by way of Dentons 50 partner firm the Connecticut Group–editor

The 2018 legislative session came to a close on Wednesday night. Although it was a so-called “short session,” that didn’t mean it wasn’t packed with activity on a number of major policy proposals. Many big-ticket bills passed, including:

  • A compromise budget between Republicans and Democrats, which closed a $200+ million deficit in the ’18-’19 fiscal year.
  • Major energy legislation that increases the state’s “renewable portfolio standard,” requiring the state’s utilities and energy suppliers to purchase an increasing amount of energy generated by renewable resources.
  • A bill instituting a statewide ban on “bump stocks.”
  • Legislation providing “dreamers” with access to financial aid at state colleges and universities.

Many high profile proposals, such as a minimum wage increase, the anti-sexual harassment “time’s up” bill, two frameworks for state-based net neutrality regulations, and a bill authorizing tolling on state highways all died at sine die.

* * *

Danbury Mayor Mark Boughton secured the endorsement of the Connecticut GOP on Saturday evening at the Republican State Convention. It’s Boughton’s third time running for Governor, and his first time running with the party’s endorsement.

Former Trumbull First Selectman Tim Herbst and businessman Steve Obsitnik both received enough delegate support to qualify for a primary against Boughton, which they plan to take on. Businessmen David Stemerman and Bob Stefanowski, as well as Shelton Mayor Mark Lauretti plan to petition their way onto the primary ballot.

Sen. Joe Markley won the GOP endorsement for Lt. Governor over New Britain Mayor Erin Stewart and Darien First Selectwoman Jayme Stevenson. Both Stevenson and Stewart plan to challenge Markley in a primary race for the party’s nomination.

Everything to watch for (and when) on primary day in IN, NC, OH, and WV

Today, voters in Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio, and West Virginia will go to the polls as primary season swings into high gear.

Republicans will choose Senate nominees to take on three vulnerable Democratic incumbents: Indiana’s Joe Donnelly, Ohio’s Sherrod Brown, and West Virginia’s Joe Manchin. Both sides also have competitive races to succeed termed-out Gov. John Kasich in Ohio, as well as plenty of House races to watch across these four states.

It only takes a simple plurality to win nomination in Indiana, Ohio, and West Virginia, while North Carolina requires a July runoff if no candidate takes more than 30 percent of the vote. However, since all of the primaries we’ll be watching have no more than three candidates running, all of these nominations will be settled on Tuesday, barring the most extraordinary of circumstances.

Things kick off at 6 PM ET when polls close in most of Indiana, with the small portion of the state in the Central time zone closing an hour later. Polls close in North Carolina, Ohio, and West Virginia at 7:30 PM ET.

INDIANA

● IN-Sen (D): Sen. Joe Donnelly is a vulnerable Democrat on everyone’s list, but it’s anyone’s guess who will face him in the fall. Republicans long expected a nasty duel between Rep. Luke Messer, who is close to the state party establishment, and Rep. Todd Rokita, a former secretary of state who has always been more of a lone wolf. But wealthy former state Rep. Mike Braun has scrambled things, and he’s used his fortune to outspend both congressmen and run ad after ad portraying himself as a political outsider. Polling has been scarce, so there’s no telling how this one will go.

All three Republicans attracted some bad press throughout the campaign and even into the final days. Rokita has been the most aggressive about portraying himself as the one true Trump ally in the race, so it didn’t look so good when Trump’s re-election campaign demanded that he stop using yard signs that seemed to suggest the White House was supporting Rokita’s bid. (After initially snarking, “We not not comment on yard sign strategy,” the Rokita campaign appeared to cover up the bogus endorsement with painter’s tape.)

Messer, meanwhile, has been on the defensive for months since news broke that he co-owns his Indiana residence with his mother while his family now lives in the D.C. area. (Similar charges that he’d “gone Washington” famously sank Sen. Richard Lugar in his 2012 primary.) Late in the race, the public also learned that in 2003, when Messer was persuading local Indiana GOP leaders to appoint him to replace a state representative who had been killed by a drunk driver, Messer had kept his own two DUIs a secret.

And finally, it turns out that Braun consistently voted in the Democratic primary until 2012, naturally leading his rivals to question his loyalty to the GOP. Braun has argued that he’s a successful businessman, but a recent Associated Press article painted him in a very different light, finding that his company has been charged with a litany of labor law violations and has sought the very sort of government subsidies that Braun has attacked on the campaign trail.

● IN-02 (D) (59-36 Trump, 56-42 Romney): While GOP Rep. Jackie Walorski decisively won re-election in 2014 and 2016, Democrats haven’t forgotten about her surprisingly tight 49-48 victory when she won her first term in 2012. The DCCC is hoping to target Walorski in the fall, and healthcare executive Mel Hall appears to be the frontrunner to take her on. Hall’s main primary foe is businessman Yatish Joshi, who has the support of Joe Kernan, a former mayor of South Bend and Indiana’s most recent Democratic governor. Hall outspent Joshi by a wide $233,000 to $59,000 from April 1-18, which the FEC calls the “pre-primary period.”

● IN-04 (R) (64-30 Trump, 61-37 Romney): Rep. Todd Rokita is leaving to run for the Senate, and the winner of the crowded GOP primary should have little trouble holding this seat, which includes Lafayette and some of Indianapolis’ western suburbs. The frontrunners appear to be Diego Morales, who served as a senior advisor to then-Gov. Mike Pence, and Steve Braun, who resigned as state Department of Workforce Development director to run here. (Yes you’ve read that name before in this piece, Braun is also a brother of Senate candidate Mike Braun, though the two haven’t campaigned together.) State Rep. Jim Baird, an Army veteran who lost his left arm in Vietnam, is also in the mix.

Morales has the support of some old Pence allies (the vice president has formally remained neutral), but he drew bad headlines in March when the Journal & Courier reported that he’d left several government jobs for poor performance and seemed to exaggerate his resume. Braun, who has done some considerable self-funding, outspent Baird $321,000 to $73,000 during the pre-primary period, while Morales spent $64,000.

A pro-Morales group called With Honor Fund has aired ads hitting Braun, while the pro-Braun Citizens for a Strong America has spent at least $300,000 attacking Morales and $18,000 against Baird. Morales, a Guatemalan immigrant, took umbrage with a CSA mailer encouraging voters to send him “back across town, where he actually lives!”, while another one charging that a gas tax Baird voted for cost Indiana a proverbial arm and a leg generated plenty of news coverage and condemnation.

● IN-06 (R) (68-27 Trump, 60-37 Romney): GOP Rep. Luke Messer is leaving his eastern Indiana seat to run for the Senate, and there’s one undisputed frontrunner in the primary to succeed him. Businessman Greg Pence, an older brother of Vice President Mike Pence and a close Messer ally, has benefited from his family’s name recognition and connections, and he’s mostly cleared the field. Pence has earned some negative attention both for staying largely out of sight on the campaign trail and for some serious business failures, but it’s unlikely to be enough to stop him. Pence’s most visible primary foe is self-funding businessman Jonathan Lamb, who has run some truly bizarre ads (They’re on youtube check’em out).

● IN-09 (D) (61-34 Trump, 57-41 Romney): Democrats hope that freshman Rep. Trey Hollingsworth’s very weak ties to the state and unimpressive fundraising will give them an opening in this southern Indiana seat. The two main Democrats competing to face him are Indiana University professor Liz Watson, who previously served as a senior Democratic staffer on the U.S. House’s Committee on Education and the Workforce, and civil rights attorney Dan Canon. EMILY’s List is backing Watson, who outspent Cannon $89,000 to $20,000 during the pre-primary period.

NORTH CAROLINA

● NC-02 (D): (53-44 Trump, 56-43 Romney): Democrats are planning to target GOP Rep. George Holding in this suburban Raleigh seat. Tech executive Ken Romley, who has been self-funding much of his campaign, outspent former state Rep. Linda Coleman $254,000 to $34,000 during the pre-primary period. But Coleman, who lost competitive general elections for lieutenant governor in 2012 and 2016, likely began the race with considerably more name-recognition than Romley. In addition, in primaries so far in Texas and Illinois, we’ve generally seen women candidates performing well this cycle; if this pattern continues, it could help Coleman offset Romley’s considerable spending edge. Army veteran Wendy May, who would be the first transgender member of Congress, is also in, but she hasn’t reported raising anything.

● NC-03 (R): 61-37 Trump, 58-41 Romney): Twelve-term Republican Rep. Walter Jones has spent years voting against the House leadership’s priorities, and now he’s turned hostile to Trump’s policies: This Congress alone, the self-described “thorn in people’s ass” voted against the House version of Trumpcare and the tax bill, arguing that both were fiscally irresponsible. Jones faces a primary challenge from Craven County Commissioner Scott Dacey, who is arguing that this coastal seat needs a more reliable Trump ally.

Dacey outspent Jones $120,000 to $39,000 during the pre-primary period, and a mystery group called the Conservative Leadership Alliance began airing ads against Jones last month. But Jones, who announced during the campaign that he wouldn’t seek another term in 2020, has won more than his fair share of competitive primaries. Marine veteran Phil Law, who lost to Jones 65-20 in 2016, is running again, and he could split the anti-incumbent vote. The only poll we’ve seen was a late March survey from the conservative think-tank Civitas and conducted by an arm of SurveyUSA that gave Jones a 37-28 lead over Dacey, with Law at 15.

● NC-09 (R) (54-43 Trump, 55-44 Romney): Last cycle, Rep. Robert Pittenger won a three-way GOP primary with pastor Mark Harris by just a 35.0-34.5 margin. Pittenger was running for a redrawn seat that largely new to him while also facing an FBI and IRS investigation related to his old real estate company over loans he made to his 2012 congressional campaign. Harris is seeking a rematch, but now that the investigation has ended without charges and redistricting won’t be the same factor, Pittenger looks like he’s in much better shape this time around in this suburban Charlotte seat.

A March poll from SurveyUSA for the conservative Civitas Institute found Pittenger ahead 52-20, with little-known candidate Clarence Goins at 7. Pittenger’s campaign later released its own poll giving him a 59-26 edge, while even Harris’ own survey found the incumbent up 38-30. Pittenger outspent Harris $117,000 to $64,000 during the pre-primary period, and he’s aired many ads arguing that Harris opposed Trump in 2016. Whoever wins will quickly need to prepare for an expensive general election with solar energy businessman Dan McCready, who faces only a weak opponent in the Democratic primary.

OHIO

● OH-Sen (R): Two wealthy Republicans are competing to take on Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, but Rep. Jim Renacci is the heavy favorite. Renacci picked up an endorsement from Donald Trump late in the race, while businessman Mike Gibbons never seemed to impress party leaders. What little polling there is has found that neither candidate is very well-known, but it would be a big surprise if Renacci loses to Gibbons, who doesn’t seem to have much of a base of support to draw from.

● OH-Gov (R & D): Republican incumbent and Trump critic John Kasich is termed out, and both parties have primaries to succeed him. On the GOP side, Attorney General Mike DeWine has the support of much of the party establishment over Lt. Gov. Mary Taylor, and he’s also outspent her. Taylor has attacked DeWine, who served 12 years in the U.S. Senate, as a member of that dreaded establishment. DeWine and his allies have spent heavily on the airwaves to hit Taylor, so they’re at least taking her seriously. But what little polling we’ve seen has shown DeWine consistently ahead by sizable margins, and it would be a huge upset if Taylor beat him.

The Democratic frontrunner is Richard Cordray, who narrowly lost re-election as attorney general to DeWine in 2010 and resigned in the fall as head of the federal Consumer Financial Protection Bureau to run for governor. His main opponent is former Rep. Dennis Kucinich, a longtime Cleveland politician and quixotic two-time presidential candidate. (Also a top ten member for one of your editors)

Cordray has the support of Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren (who first proposed the creation of the CFPB) and much of the state Democratic establishment, while Kucinich is relying on his old Cleveland base and several Bernie Sanders allies, though Sanders himself has remained neutral. State Sen. Joe Schiavoni never gained much traction, but he could do well in his Youngstown base; former state Supreme Court Justice Bill O’Neill is also running.

Cordray has a huge financial edge over Kucinich, but the former congressman got some last-minute help when a super PAC run by a Republican donor friendly with Kucinich ran a flight of ads hitting Cordray from the left. Still, a Kucinich win would be an upset, though it’s something we can’t rule out. Kucinich touted his longtime support for Medicare for all and has hit Cordray for his past A-ratings from the NRA, and even Cordray’s allies concede he’s not an exciting speaker.

Polling has been light here, but the last couple of surveys have given Cordray double-digit leads, albeit with large numbers of undecideds.

● OH-12 (R & D) (53-42 Trump, 54-44 Romney): GOP Rep. Pat Tiberi resigned to take a job leading an industry lobbying group, and that’s created a bit of an odd situation in this suburban Columbus seat. There will be an Aug. 7 special election to complete the final months of Tiberi’s term, but the primary for both the special election and the regular two-year term will take place simultaneously on Tuesday. As a consequence, there’s always a small chance that someone could win their party’s nomination for just one of the two contests.

The crowded GOP primary has turned into a classic establishment vs. insurgent battle. Defending Main Street, a super PAC set up to stop anti-establishment candidates from winning GOP primaries, has spent at least $400,000 on ads for state Sen. Troy Balderson. And Tiberi’s used the remaining funds in his campaign account to air ads staring the former congressman praising Balderson.

On the other side, the House Freedom Caucus’ allied House Freedom Action group has been spending for Liberty Township Trustee Melanie Leneghan. The anti-tax Club for Growth hasn’t formally taken sides, but they’ve been airing ads hitting Balderson and have said they’d be happy with Leneghan.

The only poll we’ve seen was a mid-April Balderson poll that showed him leading Leneghan 17-11, with economist Tim Kane and state Sen. Kevin Bacon at 10, while Delaware County Prosecutor Carol O’Brien was at 7; Bacon and O’Brien seem more establishment-oriented, while the Club for Growth also said it was comfortable with Kane. In a familiar storyline, GOP insiders privately fretted to the media a few weeks ago that Leneghan is a weak candidate who could cost them this seat in the August special.

On the Democratic side, local leaders have consolidated behind Franklin County Recorder Danny O’Connor. His main primary foe is former Franklin County Sheriff Zach Scott, who badly lost a 2015 race for mayor of Columbus to Andrew Ginther (who is supporting O’Connor) and narrowly lost renomination the next year against a candidate backed by Ginther and his allies. O’Connor only outspent Scott $36,000 to $20,000 during the pre-primary period, but he had a $121,000 to $18,000 cash-on-hand edge on April 18. Farmer John Russell, who lost a 2016 race for the state House, is also in.

● OH-16 (R) (56-39 Trump, 53-45 Romney): The GOP primary to succeed Senate candidate Jim Renacci in this very gerrymandered seat, which includes parts of the Akron, Canton, and Cleveland areas, pits the old party establishment against a more Trumpesque candidate. On the one side is Anthony Gonzalez, who was a football star at the Ohio State University and later went on to play for the Indianapolis Colts. Gonzalez has the backing of influential donors and local political figures, while the U.S. Chamber of Commerce launched a $300,000 buy for him in the final week of the campaign.

His opponent is state Rep. Christina Hagan, who was a prominent Trump backer in 2016 when Ohio Gov. John Kasich was also seeking the GOP presidential nomination. Hagan has an endorsement from the NRA as well as from two of the most prominent people to be fired from the Trump administration: Anthony Scaramucci and Sebastian Gorka. Hagan has pitched herself as a Trump ally and argued that Gonzalez, who worked in Silicon Valley before he came home to run for office, is an insider. Gonzalez outspent Hagan by a wide $272,000 to $74,000 during the pre-primary period, and most of the outside spending has been for him.

WEST VIRGINIA

● WV-Sen (R): Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin is one of the GOP’s top targets in the Senate this year, and three noteworthy Republicans are competing to face him. The party establishment hasn’t shown much of a preference between Rep. Evan Jenkins or Attorney General Patrick Morrisey, but they’ve made it very clear they view former Massey Energy CEO Don Blankenship as dangerously unelectable, and they’ve spent heavily to stop him. One day before the primary, Trump even tweeted that voters should support Jenkins or Morrisey but not Blankenship.

It’s not hard to see why so many Republicans fear that Blankenship would be a toxic nominee. After a 2010 explosion at Massey’s Upper Big Branch mine resulted in the deaths of 29 of Blankenship’s employees, he spent a year in prison for conspiring to violate federal mine safety laws. While most people with such a record would gladly slink off into obscurity, not Blankenship: He declared himself a political prisoner of the Obama administration, spending millions of his own money on ads making that argument (with racist flourishes), as well as attacks on Manchin, Morrisey, and Jenkins. It’s a message that could indeed work in a state like West Virginia.

The good news for Blankenship enemies like Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (whom Blankenship infamously dubbed “Cocaine Mitch” in a campaign ad) is that recent public polls show him firmly in third place, while Jenkins and Morrisey are locked in a tight race. However, they’re still acting worried, and private GOP polls reportedly showed Blankenship taking a small lead in the final days of the race.

And indeed, Jenkins and Morrisey have mostly been attacking one another, though Morrisey belatedly started going after Blankenship in the final weekend of the campaign. Jenkins has hit Morrisey’s past work as a lobbyist, while Morrisey has gone after Jenkins for being a Democrat until he ran for Congress in 2013. Morrisey has also benefited from some outside spending from a super PAC funded by conservative mega donor Richard Uihlein. National Democrats, meanwhile, have also spent big to influence the race. While it originally looked like they were attacking both Jenkins and Morrisey equally in order to help Blankenship, Team Blue has spent almost all of its money against Jenkins while mostly leaving Morrisey alone.

● WV-02 (D) (66-29 Trump, 60-38 Romney): This central West Virginia seat is very much a longshot Democratic target, but Team Blue hopes that Rep. Alex Mooney, who, believe it or not, was a member of the Maryland legislature before joining the Mountain State’s congressional delegation in 2014, could be vulnerable in a good year. Army veteran Aaron Scheinberg is facing off with former U.S. State Department official Talley Sergent in the Democratic primary. Scheinberg outspent Sergent $92,000 to $65,000 during the pre-primary period, and he had considerably more money left over. However, Scheinberg only moved to West Virginia from New York in 2017, and while he touts his family’s roots in the state, he could negate Team Blue’s best line of attack against the carpetbagging Mooney.

● WV-03 (R) (73-23 Trump, 65-33 Romney): Evan Jenkins’ 2014 win over Democratic incumbent Nick Rahall made him the first Republican to represent southern West Virginia in generations, and there’s a crowded GOP field to succeed the Senate candidate. There’s no obvious frontrunner, and major outside groups also haven’t taken sides here.

Del. Carol Miller outspent fellow Del. Rupie Phillips, a longtime Democrat who only became a Republican last year, $179,000 to $135,000 during the pre-primary period, while former state party chair Conrad Lucus deployed $135,000. Del. Marty Gearheart and former Del. Rick Snuffer, who lost to Rahall in 2004 and 2012, are also in, but they’ve spent little between them. Team Blue is hoping that this seat’s old Democratic heritage could give them an opening, and a few candidates are competing for the nod. However, only state Sen. Richard Ojeda, an Iraq veteran who was brutally beaten at a campaign event in 2016, has spent much money, and he’s also attracted a good deal of national attention