US Election Insight 2020 – Results as of 4:30 p.m. ET

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Since the release of this morning’s Results Report, there have been several developments which have materially increased the chances that former Vice President Biden will be America’s next President and that Republicans will continue to control the Senate. While President Trump continues to have paths to 270, former Vice President Biden continues to have several more pathways.

  • In the presidential race, the Associated Press has declared Biden the winner in Wisconsin. With all but about 300 votes counted, Biden leads Trump by 20,510 votes. As the difference in vote totals is less than 1% of the votes cast, the Trump campaign will seek a recount but it cannot commence until late next week after a canvass of the votes has been completed.
  • In Nevada, the state elections commission announced this morning that no more results will be announced until noon Eastern time tomorrow. The votes that remain to be counted are expected to increase the Biden lead.
  • In Michigan, with 93% of the vote in and Vice President Biden now leading by about 37,000 votes, the Michigan Secretary of State said that she expected to have a very clear if not final picture of the election results by tonight. Several news organizations have called the state for Biden.
  • In Georgia, with 93% of the vote in and President Trump leading by about 78,000 votes, about 230,000 votes from counties expected to favor Biden remain to be counted. The Georgia Secretary of State expects the number of uncounted votes to be substantially reduced, if not exhausted, by the end of today.
  • In Pennsylvania, where President Trump leads by about 355,000 votes with 83% of the votes in, the remaining mail ballots come from Philadelphia and Allegheny County and are expected to favor Vice President Biden decisively. Pennsylvania election officials expect that most of the ballots outstanding will be counted by the end of this Friday.  

Democrats continue to have a net gain of one seat in the US Senate. With Senator Susan Collins’ re-election win in Maine, the window for Democrats to capture control of the Senate has narrowed considerably, even if Vice President Biden is elected President. As Alaska is expected to remain a Republican seat, even assuming that Senator Gary Peters pulls out a win in Michigan, Democrats would have to win both Georgia seats to gain control, a highly unlikely prospect. The balance of power has not materially changed in the House since this morning’s report.  

Finally, in a year where very little changed when it comes to state legislative control, New Hampshire gave Joe Biden and Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen large victories, then turned around and elected Republican Governor Chris Sununu to another term and flipped democratic majorities in the House and Senate to republican majorities going into 2021. The flip makes New Hampshire the only new “Trifecta” government (single party control of the governorship, House and Senate) of the cycle.

We will update this report tomorrow morning and sooner if exceptional circumstances require it.