2020 Presidential Election: Where Things Stand

November 3rd is nearly two weeks in our rear view mirror – here is what we know. Most major news outlets have called the race for former Vice President Joe Biden, but President Donald Trump has refused to concede, and has filed a string of lawsuits around the country challenging the results of the election. We leave the politics aside and provide you with an overview of where things stand in the certification process in key states, and what is required to happen between now and Inauguration Day by federal law.

Vote Certification – and the Electoral College

Congress enacted the Electoral Count Act of 1887 to set forth a uniform process for states to follow to deliver their electoral votes to Congress after the election. Congress ultimately counts and certifies the results of the Electoral College, this year on January 6th, three days after the new Congress is sworn in on January 3rd. In order for a state’s electors to receive protection that Congress will accept their electors without any questions asked, a state must certify the results of its election by the “safe harbor” deadline of six days before the electors meet to cast their votes. This year, that means that states have until December 8th to receive safe harbor status, as the winning electors will meet to cast their votes for President and Vice President on December 14th.

As of the time of this writing, six states have already certified their electors. It is widely expected that all states will do so before the safe harbor deadline. While there are reports that Republican legislators in some states may try to certify their own slate of electors in conflict with current state law in every state, this is a highly unlikely scenario, and one that likely wouldn’t change the electoral college count such that the results of the election change. We briefly detail the current status of vote certification in a number of swing states below.

Status in Swing States

Arizona

The certification date for Arizona is November 30th. As of the time of this writing, former Vice President Biden maintains a roughly 11,000 vote lead, and most major news outlets have declared him the victor. Arizona has very restrictive recount laws, so there is unlikely to be a recount. The Trump campaign has filed a lawsuit seeking to block the state’s certification of votes.

Georgia

The certification date for Georgia is November 20th. As of the time of this writing, former Vice President Biden maintains a roughly 14,000 vote lead, and most major news outlets have declared him the victor. The Georgia Secretary of State has announced that the state will conduct a hand recount of every ballot cast in the presidential race, and will also conduct a risk-limiting audit to rule out the possibility of fraud or errors. This process has begun as of the time of this publication.

Pennsylvania

The certification date for Pennsylvania is November 23rd. As of the time of this writing, former Vice President Biden maintains a roughly 60,000 vote lead, and most major news outlets have declared him the victor. Biden’s lead is currently too large to trigger an automatic recount, and it is unclear if the Trump campaign would request one. Pennsylvania is the state where the Trump campaign has filed the most lawsuits. Because of one of the lawsuits, the United States Supreme Court ordered mail ballots postmarked by election day but received in the three days following election day to be sequestered. The number of ballots in this category appears to be approximately 10,000. The Trump campaign has also filed a lawsuit seeking to block the state’s certification of votes.

Wisconsin

The certification date for Wisconsin is December 1st. As of the time of this writing, former Vice President Biden maintains a roughly 20,000 vote lead, and most major news outlets have declared him the victor. The Trump campaign has said that it would request a recount, which would need to be completed within 13 days of its commencement under state law.