Preliminary Results from Election Night 2020

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This was written at 9:30am CST on November 4 before the result of the Presidential race is known and with several US House and Senate races still undecided.  Iowa has results at the federal and state level but it remains to be seen if the close races in the 1st and 2nd Congressional Districts resulting in Republican pickups will trigger recounts. Below is a high-level breakdown of the results that we know now.  A more detailed analysis will be provided later this week or early next week.

Presidential – Undecided

  • Iowa – President Trump defeated Joe Biden 53% to 44%.
  • National – The electoral count currently has Joe Biden with 238 and President Trump with 213.  These states have yet to be called:
    • Pennsylvania
    • Michigan
    • Wisconsin
    • Nevada
    • North Carolina
    • Georgia

US Senate – Likely Republican Hold

  • Iowa – Senator Joni Ernst defeated Theresa Greenfield 51% to 45%.
  • National – Currently the Senate is split 47-47 with 6 races having yet to be called.  We won’t know the outcome of the Georgia race until a run-off election in January 2021.  That being said, it is anticipated that the Senate will remain in Republican control regardless of the outcome of the Georgia run-off.

US House – Likely Democratic Hold

  • Iowa –
    • Congressional District 1: Ashley Hinson currently leads Rep. Finkenauer 51%-49% (just under 11,000 votes) but Finkenauer has yet to concede.
    • Congressional District 2:  Mariannette Miller-Meeks currently leads Rita Hart by just under 300 votes but Hart has yet to concede.
    • Congressional District 3:  Rep. Cindy Axne defeated David Young 49%-47%.
    • Congressional District 4: Randy Feenstra defeated J.D. Scholten 62%-38%.
  • National – The House is currently at 189-183 with a large number of races having yet to be decided. The Republicans have picked up 4 seats.  That being said, the Democrats are expected to retain their majority.

Iowa Statehouse

Senate – Republicans maintained their 32-18 majority

  • Republicans successfully defended six open seats and defeated one Democratic incumbent.
  • Democrats won one Republican open seat (Sen. Schneider’s).

House-Republicans increased their majority to 59-41 from 53-47

  • Republicans defeated seven Democratic incumbents while successfully defending all of their own incumbents.
  • Democrats won one open seat (Rep. Hinson’s).